Regional assessment of status and trends in PAH concentrations in biota

  • Overview
  • Summary of individual time series results
  • Regional assessment - methods
  • Regional assessment - availability of time series
  • Regional trends
  • Regional status compared to the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • Regional status compared to the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • PAH profiles

Overview

The 2023 OSPAR CEMP assessment describes the status and trends of contaminant concentrations in biota and sediment at monitoring stations in the OSPAR area. Assessments are made for a large number of time series, each of a single contaminant in a single species and tissue (for biota) at a single monitoring station. This document is one of a series that synthesises the results of the individual time series to assess status and trends at the MIME regional level. In particular, it considers PAH concentrations in biota, where the PAHs are NAP, ACNLE, ACNE, FLE, PA, ANT, DBT, FLU, PYR, BAA, CHR, BAP, BEP, BBKF, DBAHA, PER, BGHIP, ICDP. For simplicity, the term ‘region’ is used throughout to describe MIME regions. OSPAR regions are always referred to as such.

The regional status assessments presented in this document are based on environmental thresholds. Regional status assessments based on human health thresholds can be found here.

The regional status assessments presented in this document are integrated with regional status assessments for other contaminants and biological effects using the CHASE approach. Details can be found here.

The following sections:

  • summarise the individual time series results
  • describe the methods used to combine the individual time series results to estimate regional status and trends
  • present the estimates of regional trends
  • present the estimates of regional status


Summary of individual time series results

A time series of PAH concentrations is assessed for status if:

  • there is at least one year with data in the period 2016 to 2021
  • there are at least three years of data over the whole time series
  • a parametric model can be fitted to the data and used to estimate the mean concentration in the final monitoring year (or, occasionally, if a non-parametric test of status is applied)

The conditions are more stringent for trends. Specifically, a time series is assessed for trends if:

  • there is at least one year with data in the period 2016 to 2021
  • there are at least five years of data over the whole time series
  • a parametric model can be fitted to the data and used to estimate the trend in mean concentration

Note that all trend assessments for individual time series and most status assessments are based on the fit of a parametric model. This is important because only the parametric results are passed into the regional assessments in the following sections. 128 of the 3089 PAH time series were assessed for status using a non-parametric test.

The first tab below shows all the monitoring stations where there are individual time series assessments of trend or status for PAHs. The purple circles are stations where there is a trend assessment for at least one PAH, and the light blue cirles are stations where there are only status assessments.

The next set of tabs show the trend and status assessments for each PAH in turn. The colours have the following meaning:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • orange: there is no EAC and the mean concentration is not significantly below the BAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not signficantly below the EAC
  • black: there are no assessment criteria available

And the shapes have the following meaning:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05) or there are too few years to test for trends
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The final set of tabs give:

  • the number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions
  • the number of time series with blue, green, orange or red status in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions

Note that only ten of the PAHs have assessment criteria: NAP, PA, ANT, FLU, PYR, BAA, CHR, BAP, BGHIP, ICDP. Of these, NAP and ANT only have an EAC and CHR and ICDP only have a BAC.


Stations


NAP


ACNLE


ACNE


FLE


PA


ANT


DBT


FLU


PYR


BAA


CHR


BAP


BEP


BBKF


DBAHA


PER


BGHIP


ICDP


Trend summary (numbers)

Number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP ACNLE ACNE FLE PA ANT DBT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BEP BBKF DBAHA PER BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 7
downward trend 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 8
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 4 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 13
downward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5
downward trend 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 7
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 1 0 1 3 4 2 0 5 1 1 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 25
downward trend 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 18
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 14 7 8 4 11 12 0 8 5 5 0 1 6 0 0 1 4 3 89
downward trend 1 0 0 1 7 2 0 8 11 8 0 1 5 1 0 1 8 4 58
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 11
no trend 4 1 3 2 9 3 3 7 7 7 3 5 3 10 1 3 7 4 82
downward trend 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 5 5 3 3 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 28
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
no trend 10 0 10 4 13 4 0 16 15 10 9 7 4 14 2 4 10 7 139
downward trend 1 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 2 1 4 4 1 2 0 1 1 1 26
Channel upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 0 2 1 0 1 3 19
no trend 0 0 0 0 10 10 0 19 18 17 17 12 0 17 18 0 19 17 174
downward trend 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
total upward trend 1 0 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 5 4 6 0 3 1 0 1 3 35
no trend 28 8 21 10 43 29 3 50 45 39 29 25 13 41 21 8 40 31 484
downward trend 4 0 2 4 12 4 0 15 19 12 8 8 7 5 0 2 10 6 118
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 8
no trend 0 12 11 11 14 10 0 12 12 11 12 12 0 14 6 0 14 12 163
downward trend 1 1 4 4 2 5 0 3 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 31
Irish Sea upward trend 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 5 3 3 6 4 0 0 0 0 4 4 34
no trend 2 10 10 10 17 16 1 15 14 10 11 8 2 9 8 1 14 12 170
downward trend 0 1 0 1 3 1 0 2 4 7 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 3 37
Celtic Sea upward trend 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 10
no trend 0 7 5 6 13 5 0 14 15 18 20 18 0 11 8 0 18 20 178
downward trend 0 0 1 2 2 7 0 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24
total upward trend 0 1 4 0 4 0 0 6 4 3 10 8 0 0 1 0 7 4 52
no trend 2 29 26 27 44 31 1 41 41 39 43 38 2 34 22 1 46 44 511
downward trend 1 2 5 7 7 13 0 10 10 13 4 3 1 1 2 2 6 5 92
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 6
no trend 0 0 0 0 4 8 0 16 16 20 19 18 0 4 4 0 16 19 144
downward trend 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 17
Iberian Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 4 5 6 2 6 4 4 0 0 6 3 51
no trend 0 0 0 0 16 19 0 18 17 18 20 17 14 17 8 0 17 19 200
downward trend 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 5 5 3 5 4 5 5 0 0 4 3 46
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 4 5 6 2 8 4 4 0 0 9 4 57
no trend 0 0 0 0 20 27 0 34 33 38 39 35 14 21 12 0 33 38 344
downward trend 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 9 8 3 6 4 5 5 0 0 5 3 63


Trend summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP ACNLE ACNE FLE PA ANT DBT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BEP BBKF DBAHA PER BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 100 100 100 0 50 0 0 0 100 0 0 47
downward trend 100 0 0 0 100 50 100 100 100 0 100 100 53
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 100 100 100 50 50 100 0 100 100 81
downward trend 0 0 0 0 50 50 0 100 0 0 19
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 0 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 42
downward trend 0 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 58
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 0 100 100 100 67 71 25 25 100 0 100 0 33 58
downward trend 0 100 0 0 0 33 29 75 75 0 100 0 100 67 42
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 93 100 89 80 61 86 50 31 38 50 55 0 50 33 43 60
downward trend 7 0 0 20 39 14 50 69 62 50 45 100 50 67 57 39
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 14 0 20 20 9 25 0 8 8 9 14 14 0 8 0 0 0 0 9
no trend 57 100 60 40 82 75 100 54 54 64 43 72 75 77 100 100 88 80 68
downward trend 29 0 20 40 9 0 0 38 38 27 43 14 25 15 0 0 12 20 23
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0 11 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
no trend 91 91 80 72 67 0 94 88 91 69 64 80 88 100 80 91 88 82
downward trend 9 9 20 17 33 0 6 12 9 31 36 20 12 0 20 9 12 16
Channel upward trend 0 0 0 0 19 14 26 11 5 5 15 10
no trend 91 100 95 95 81 81 63 89 95 95 85 87
downward trend 9 0 5 5 0 5 11 0 0 0 0 3
total upward trend 3 0 8 7 5 3 40 1 2 9 10 15 0 6 5 0 2 7 5
no trend 85 100 84 66 74 85 60 76 69 70 71 64 65 84 95 80 78 78 76
downward trend 12 0 8 27 21 12 0 23 29 21 19 21 35 10 0 20 20 15 19
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 25 7 0 14 0 0 4
no trend 0 92 73 73 88 67 75 75 79 75 86 100 86 88 86 81
downward trend 100 8 27 27 12 33 19 19 21 0 7 0 0 12 14 15
Irish Sea upward trend 0 0 17 0 13 0 0 23 14 15 30 29 0 0 0 0 18 21 14
no trend 100 91 83 91 74 94 100 68 67 50 55 57 67 90 80 33 64 63 71
downward trend 0 9 0 9 13 6 0 9 19 35 15 14 33 10 20 67 18 16 15
Celtic Sea upward trend 12 25 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 14 0 5
no trend 88 63 75 81 42 74 83 86 95 86 100 100 86 100 84
downward trend 0 12 25 13 58 26 17 14 5 0 0 0 0 0 11
total upward trend 0 3 12 0 7 0 0 10 7 5 18 16 0 0 4 0 12 8 8
no trend 67 91 74 79 80 70 100 72 75 71 75 78 67 97 88 33 78 83 78
downward trend 33 6 14 21 13 30 0 18 18 24 7 6 33 3 8 67 10 9 14
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 15 5 4
no trend 33 100 80 84 100 95 90 100 100 80 95 86
downward trend 67 0 20 16 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 10
Iberian Sea upward trend 33 8 15 18 22 7 22 17 15 0 22 12 17
no trend 59 73 67 63 67 74 63 61 66 100 63 76 67
downward trend 8 19 18 19 11 19 15 22 19 0 15 12 16
total upward trend 23 6 9 11 13 4 17 17 13 0 19 9 12
no trend 51 79 72 72 81 83 74 61 70 100 70 84 74
downward trend 26 15 19 17 6 13 9 22 17 0 11 7 14


Status summary (numbers)

Number of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP PA ANT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea blue 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
green 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 10
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
red 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Greenland-Scotland ridge blue 0 3 0 5 6 6 6 5 2 2 35
green 7 3 7 1 2 1 0 2 5 0 28
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 6
red 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Norwegian Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
green 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 8
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 3 0 6 7 7 6 5 2 2 38
green 9 6 10 2 3 3 0 5 8 0 46
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 8 9
red 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 5
2 Northern North Sea blue 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
green 15 20 20 14 15 17 0 11 20 0 132
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 18 23
red 1 0 0 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 9
Skagerrak and Kattegat blue 0 0 0 2 1 1 5 1 0 0 10
green 13 21 16 17 18 17 0 18 18 0 138
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 16 25
red 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 8
Southern North Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5
green 13 22 21 18 18 21 0 20 22 0 155
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 20 37
red 2 0 0 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 10
Channel blue 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 3 0 4 14
green 20 23 23 21 22 22 0 21 23 0 175
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 18 39
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 0 0 6 1 3 13 4 0 4 31
green 61 86 80 70 73 77 0 70 83 0 600
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 72 124
red 7 0 0 8 7 4 0 1 0 0 27
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast blue 0 0 0 3 4 3 10 3 5 8 36
green 1 21 20 18 16 18 0 17 16 0 127
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 13 24
red 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2
Irish Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
green 13 31 31 22 19 24 0 29 31 0 200
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 31 58
red 2 0 0 9 10 5 0 1 0 0 27
Celtic Sea blue 0 2 0 12 7 5 17 7 4 12 66
green 6 25 26 15 20 22 0 20 23 0 157
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 15 25
red 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
total blue 0 2 0 15 11 8 29 10 9 20 104
green 20 77 77 55 55 64 0 66 70 0 484
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 59 107
red 2 0 2 9 11 5 0 1 0 0 30
4 Northern Bay of Biscay blue 0 3 0 2 0 0 11 2 0 2 20
green 9 29 32 30 32 32 0 30 32 0 226
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 30 51
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iberian Sea blue 0 2 0 7 7 4 5 3 4 7 39
green 0 36 38 25 24 30 0 34 31 0 218
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 31 66
red 0 0 0 6 7 4 0 1 3 0 21
total blue 0 5 0 9 7 4 16 5 4 9 59
green 9 65 70 55 56 62 0 64 63 0 444
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 61 117
red 0 0 0 6 7 4 0 1 3 0 21


Status summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP PA ANT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea blue 0 0 0 50 50 50 0 0 0 17
green 50 100 100 0 0 50 100 100 0 55
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 11
red 50 0 0 50 50 0 0 0 0 17
Greenland-Scotland ridge blue 0 43 0 72 75 86 86 71 29 29 49
green 100 43 100 14 25 14 0 29 71 0 39
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 71 9
red 0 14 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Norwegian Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
green 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 89
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 11
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 30 0 60 64 70 86 50 20 20 39
green 90 60 100 20 27 30 0 50 80 0 47
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 80 9
red 10 10 0 20 9 0 0 0 0 0 5
2 Northern North Sea blue 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
green 94 100 100 74 88 85 0 100 100 0 80
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 14
red 6 0 0 16 12 15 0 0 0 0 5
Skagerrak and Kattegat blue 0 0 0 9 5 6 36 5 0 0 6
green 76 100 100 81 86 94 0 95 100 0 76
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 100 14
red 24 0 0 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 4
Southern North Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 2
green 87 100 100 86 86 95 0 95 100 0 75
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 100 18
red 13 0 0 14 14 5 0 5 0 0 5
Channel blue 0 0 0 9 0 8 12 12 0 18 6
green 100 100 100 91 100 92 0 88 100 0 77
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 82 17
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 0 0 7 1 3 20 6 0 5 4
green 90 100 100 83 90 92 0 93 100 0 77
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 0 0 95 16
red 10 0 0 10 9 5 0 1 0 0 3
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast blue 0 0 0 14 19 14 48 15 24 38 19
green 100 100 95 86 76 86 0 85 76 0 67
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 62 13
red 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 1
Irish Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 1
green 87 100 100 71 66 83 0 97 100 0 70
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 93 0 0 100 20
red 13 0 0 29 34 17 0 3 0 0 9
Celtic Sea blue 0 7 0 44 26 19 63 26 15 44 27
green 100 93 96 56 74 81 0 74 85 0 63
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 56 10
red 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 3 0 19 14 10 38 13 11 25 14
green 91 97 97 70 72 83 0 86 89 0 67
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 75 15
red 9 0 3 11 14 7 0 1 0 0 4
4 Northern Bay of Biscay blue 0 9 0 6 0 0 34 6 0 6 7
green 100 91 100 94 100 100 0 94 100 0 76
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 94 17
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iberian Sea blue 5 0 18 19 10 12 8 10 18 11
green 95 100 66 63 79 0 89 82 0 64
orange 0 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 82 19
red 0 0 16 18 11 0 3 8 0 6
total blue 0 7 0 13 10 6 22 7 6 13 9
green 100 93 100 79 80 88 0 91 90 0 69
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 87 18
red 0 0 0 8 10 6 0 2 4 0 4


Regional assessment - methods

Tabulating the number of time series with each status category by region provides a quick summary of the individual time series results. However, it does not provide an objective regional assessment of status. Similarly, tabulating the number of time series with an upward or downward trend does not provide an objective regional assessment of trend. This section describes how the individual time series results can by synthesised in a meta-analysis to assess both status and trend at the regional level.

Trends

For a regional trend assessment, the trend in each time series is summarised by the estimated change in log concentration over the last twenty years (or shorter if the time series doesn’t extend that far back). Regional trends are then estimated by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: trend (yearly change in log concentration)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + trend estimation variation + residual variation

The fixed model means that a trend is estimated for each region. Trends in the different PAHs are assumed to be broadly similar, because inputs and control measures are likely to affect all PAHs in a similar way. Each regional trend can thus be interpreted as the common trend in PAH concentrations in that region (i.e. the trend averaged across all PAHs).

The random model has six terms:

  • PAH allows for variation in trend between PAHs common to all regions
  • region.PAH allows for additional variation in trend between PAHs within regions
  • station allows for variation in trend between stations common to all PAHs
  • station.PAH allows for additional variation in trend between stations and PAHs common to all species within stations
  • trend estimation variation is the variance of the trend estimates from the individual time series analysis, assumed known and fixed
  • residual variation is the variation that cannot be explained by any of the fixed effects or the other random effects

The meta-analysis is restricted to time series from monitoring stations that are classified as ‘representative’ or ‘baseline’ (near pristine conditions or only subject to very diffuse inputs). ‘Impacted’ stations (those close to a point source) are omitted because trends there will likely reflect changes due to the point source and will be ‘unrepresentative’ at the regional level.

The meta-analysis is further restricted to:

  • regions with at least three trend stations with good geographic spread. Three stations is considered the minimum required to provide some sort of evidence base at the regional level
  • PAHs with trend information for at least three stations (over all regions): PAHs are treated as random effects in the meta-anlaysis, so information about trends in one PAH can be ‘borrowed’ from the trend information in the other PAHs

Status

For a regional status assessment, the status of each time series is summarised by the difference between the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the log assessment concentration. This ensures that status is always measured on the same scale, even though the assessment concentration might vary between PAHs and species. Essentially the same linear mixed model as for trends is then fitted:

  • response: status (mean log concentration - log assessment concentration)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + status estimation variation + residual variation

where status estimation variation is the variation in the status estimates from the individual time series analysis, assumed known and fixed.

There are no restrictions on the time series used in the status meta-analysis based on the classification of the monitoring station; time series from baseline, representative and impacted stations are all included. However, the few time series with a non-parametric assessment of status must be excluded, because there is no summary measure of status to use in the mixed model.

Again, the meta-analysis is restricted to regions with at least three status stations with good geographic spread and to PAHs with status information for at least three stations (over all regions).

Presentation

The results of both the trend and status regional assessments are back-transformed for presentation. The estimated regional trend is then interpreted as the percentage yearly change in concentration and the estimated regional status as the ratio of the mean regional concentration to the assessment concentration. To illustrate the latter, a value of 1 indicates that the mean regional concentration is equal to the assessment concentration; a value of 0.5 indicates that it is half the assessment concentration, and a value of 2 indicates that it is twice the assessment concentration.


Regional assessment - availability of time series

This section provides more detail on the number and geographic spread of the time series available for the meta-analyses. The tabs show the stations with parametric trend and status assessments for each OSPAR region in turn, having excluded trend assessments at impacted stations. The purple circles are stations where there is a trend assessment for at least one PAH, and the light blue cirles are stations where there are only status assessments.

The following regions have an insufficient number of time series or spread of stations and are excluded from the regional assessment:

  • trend: Barents Sea, Greenland-Scotland ridge, Norwegian Sea
  • status: Barents Sea, Norwegian Sea


OSPAR region 1


OSPAR region 2


OSPAR region 3


OSPAR region 4


Regional trends

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional trends: estimates of the regional trend (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional trends by PAH: regional trend estimates for each PAH with pointwise 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional trends by region: regional trend estimates for each PAH with pointwise 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the trend estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all these plots have the following interpretation:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05)
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional trend (averaged over PAHs) and the regional trend by PAH


Regional trends


Regional trends by PAH


Regional trends by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend:

  • trend: the estimated mean yearly change in log concentration across the region (multiplied by 100 for presentation)
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • lower, upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits
  • % yearly change: the estimated mean % yearly change in concentration across the region
  • %yc lower, %yc upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits


MIME region trend se lower upper % yearly change %yc lower %yc upper
Northern North Sea -7.33 2.12 -11.48 -3.18 -7.07 -10.85 -3.13
Skagerrak and Kattegat -2.18 2.98 -8.02 3.65 -2.16 -7.70 3.72
Southern North Sea -0.85 2.11 -4.99 3.29 -0.84 -4.87 3.35
Channel 0.64 2.13 -3.54 4.81 0.64 -3.48 4.93
Irish and Scottish West Coast -4.52 2.22 -8.88 -0.16 -4.42 -8.50 -0.16
Irish Sea 2.82 1.90 -0.90 6.54 2.86 -0.90 6.76
Celtic Sea -2.89 2.06 -6.93 1.16 -2.84 -6.69 1.16
Northern Bay of Biscay -2.31 2.18 -6.59 1.96 -2.29 -6.38 1.98
Iberian Sea -0.88 1.83 -4.46 2.69 -0.88 -4.36 2.73


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • trend: the estimated mean yearly change in log concentration across the region (multiplied by 100 for presentation)
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • lower, upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits
  • % yearly change: the estimated mean % yearly change in concentration across the region
  • %yc lower, %yc upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits


MIME region PAH trend se lower upper % yearly change %yc lower %yc upper
Northern North Sea NAP -5.91 2.69 -11.19 -0.63 -5.74 -10.59 -0.63
ACNLE -5.59 2.95 -11.37 0.19 -5.44 -10.75 0.19
ACNE 2.37 2.87 -3.25 8.00 2.40 -3.20 8.33
FLE -5.36 2.58 -10.42 -0.30 -5.22 -9.90 -0.30
PA -6.62 2.03 -10.59 -2.64 -6.40 -10.05 -2.61
ANT -7.62 2.22 -11.98 -3.27 -7.34 -11.29 -3.22
FLU -4.94 1.98 -8.82 -1.05 -4.82 -8.44 -1.05
PYR -5.39 1.97 -9.24 -1.54 -5.25 -8.83 -1.52
BAA -11.36 2.07 -15.41 -7.30 -10.73 -14.28 -7.04
BAP -8.50 3.52 -15.39 -1.61 -8.14 -14.26 -1.59
BEP -8.69 2.18 -12.97 -4.41 -8.32 -12.16 -4.32
BBKF -10.70 3.40 -17.37 -4.03 -10.15 -15.94 -3.95
PER -11.54 3.04 -17.49 -5.58 -10.90 -16.04 -5.43
BGHIP -9.97 2.04 -13.97 -5.98 -9.49 -13.04 -5.80
ICDP -11.77 2.31 -16.29 -7.24 -11.10 -15.03 -6.99
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP 0.71 3.28 -5.71 7.13 0.71 -5.55 7.39
ACNE -1.28 3.63 -8.40 5.84 -1.27 -8.05 6.02
FLE -4.58 3.46 -11.36 2.20 -4.48 -10.74 2.23
PA -4.50 3.21 -10.79 1.80 -4.40 -10.23 1.81
ANT -0.04 3.51 -6.92 6.84 -0.04 -6.68 7.08
DBT 0.69 3.77 -6.70 8.08 0.69 -6.48 8.41
FLU -1.25 3.15 -7.42 4.92 -1.24 -7.15 5.04
PYR -2.75 3.04 -8.70 3.20 -2.71 -8.33 3.26
BAA -3.81 3.11 -9.91 2.29 -3.74 -9.44 2.32
CHR -2.01 3.09 -8.07 4.04 -1.99 -7.75 4.12
BAP -1.48 3.41 -8.16 5.19 -1.47 -7.83 5.33
BEP -1.31 3.49 -8.14 5.52 -1.30 -7.82 5.68
BBKF -2.23 3.04 -8.18 3.73 -2.20 -7.86 3.80
DBAHA -4.02 3.93 -11.72 3.68 -3.94 -11.06 3.75
PER -3.37 3.76 -10.74 3.99 -3.32 -10.18 4.07
BGHIP -2.28 3.76 -9.66 5.10 -2.25 -9.21 5.23
ICDP -4.06 4.58 -13.04 4.93 -3.97 -12.23 5.05
Southern North Sea NAP -2.02 2.35 -6.63 2.59 -2.00 -6.41 2.62
ACNE -2.77 2.39 -7.46 1.91 -2.74 -7.19 1.93
FLE -0.54 2.27 -4.98 3.90 -0.54 -4.86 3.98
PA 0.79 2.04 -3.20 4.79 0.80 -3.15 4.90
ANT -0.71 2.31 -5.24 3.83 -0.71 -5.11 3.90
DBT 7.23 2.94 1.48 12.99 7.50 1.49 13.88
FLU 0.60 2.11 -3.54 4.75 0.60 -3.48 4.86
PYR -0.64 2.09 -4.74 3.46 -0.63 -4.63 3.52
BAA -0.37 2.20 -4.68 3.94 -0.37 -4.57 4.02
CHR -1.04 2.14 -5.23 3.15 -1.03 -5.09 3.20
BAP -3.20 2.16 -7.45 1.04 -3.15 -7.18 1.04
BEP -1.60 2.38 -6.27 3.06 -1.59 -6.07 3.11
BBKF -0.90 2.03 -4.88 3.07 -0.90 -4.76 3.12
DBAHA -3.78 3.22 -10.10 2.54 -3.71 -9.61 2.57
PER -2.41 2.63 -7.57 2.75 -2.38 -7.29 2.79
BGHIP -2.29 2.15 -6.51 1.93 -2.26 -6.31 1.95
ICDP -1.21 2.28 -5.67 3.26 -1.20 -5.51 3.31
Channel PA -3.41 2.72 -8.74 1.93 -3.35 -8.37 1.95
ANT 0.27 3.23 -6.06 6.60 0.27 -5.88 6.83
FLU -2.88 2.29 -7.36 1.61 -2.84 -7.10 1.62
PYR -3.81 2.26 -8.24 0.61 -3.74 -7.91 0.61
BAA 2.62 2.33 -1.94 7.19 2.66 -1.92 7.45
CHR 4.16 2.21 -0.17 8.49 4.25 -0.17 8.86
BAP 4.01 2.48 -0.85 8.87 4.09 -0.84 9.28
BBKF 1.80 2.26 -2.64 6.23 1.81 -2.60 6.43
DBAHA 3.12 2.50 -1.78 8.01 3.17 -1.76 8.34
BGHIP 0.71 2.36 -3.93 5.34 0.71 -3.85 5.48
ICDP -0.09 2.36 -4.71 4.53 -0.09 -4.60 4.64
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP -6.19 3.88 -13.79 1.41 -6.00 -12.88 1.42
ACNLE -3.93 2.43 -8.69 0.83 -3.86 -8.33 0.83
ACNE -6.33 2.35 -10.94 -1.73 -6.14 -10.37 -1.71
FLE -9.50 2.44 -14.30 -4.71 -9.07 -13.32 -4.60
PA -4.24 2.18 -8.51 0.03 -4.15 -8.16 0.03
ANT -11.60 2.78 -17.05 -6.16 -10.95 -15.67 -5.97
FLU -4.26 2.25 -8.67 0.14 -4.17 -8.30 0.14
PYR -2.97 2.27 -7.42 1.49 -2.92 -7.15 1.50
BAA -9.79 2.43 -14.55 -5.02 -9.32 -13.54 -4.90
CHR 2.30 2.28 -2.17 6.76 2.33 -2.14 7.00
BAP -1.44 2.53 -6.40 3.52 -1.43 -6.20 3.58
BBKF -5.28 3.30 -11.75 1.18 -5.15 -11.08 1.19
DBAHA 0.42 3.16 -5.77 6.62 0.42 -5.61 6.84
BGHIP -2.89 2.31 -7.41 1.64 -2.85 -7.14 1.65
ICDP -2.23 2.56 -7.25 2.78 -2.21 -7.00 2.82
Irish Sea NAP 2.99 3.68 -4.21 10.20 3.04 -4.13 10.74
ACNLE 3.64 2.37 -1.00 8.28 3.71 -0.99 8.64
ACNE 6.83 2.26 2.40 11.26 7.07 2.43 11.92
FLE -0.84 2.30 -5.35 3.67 -0.84 -5.21 3.73
PA 3.96 1.87 0.29 7.63 4.04 0.30 7.93
ANT -0.60 2.18 -4.88 3.68 -0.60 -4.76 3.74
DBT 3.80 2.78 -1.65 9.25 3.87 -1.64 9.69
FLU 5.25 1.82 1.68 8.83 5.40 1.69 9.23
PYR 5.19 1.84 1.59 8.79 5.33 1.60 9.19
BAA 2.15 1.83 -1.44 5.73 2.17 -1.43 5.90
CHR 3.00 1.85 -0.63 6.64 3.05 -0.63 6.86
BAP 2.91 2.04 -1.09 6.91 2.95 -1.08 7.15
BEP 3.05 2.59 -2.03 8.13 3.10 -2.01 8.47
BBKF 0.97 2.58 -4.09 6.03 0.98 -4.00 6.22
DBAHA 0.19 2.21 -4.15 4.52 0.19 -4.07 4.63
PER 0.04 2.99 -5.81 5.90 0.04 -5.65 6.08
BGHIP 3.88 1.81 0.33 7.42 3.95 0.33 7.71
ICDP 4.29 1.86 0.65 7.93 4.38 0.65 8.25
Celtic Sea ACNLE 0.32 2.41 -4.40 5.04 0.32 -4.30 5.16
ACNE -0.88 2.22 -5.23 3.48 -0.87 -5.10 3.54
FLE -10.33 2.49 -15.21 -5.46 -9.82 -14.11 -5.31
PA -4.56 2.12 -8.72 -0.41 -4.46 -8.35 -0.41
ANT -13.08 2.26 -17.51 -8.66 -12.26 -16.06 -8.29
FLU -4.55 2.08 -8.63 -0.47 -4.45 -8.27 -0.47
PYR -2.32 2.13 -6.50 1.85 -2.30 -6.29 1.87
BAA -3.37 2.15 -7.59 0.85 -3.31 -7.31 0.86
CHR -1.14 2.06 -5.17 2.90 -1.13 -5.04 2.94
BAP 0.94 2.19 -3.35 5.24 0.95 -3.30 5.38
BBKF -2.67 2.69 -7.95 2.60 -2.64 -7.64 2.64
DBAHA -3.09 3.07 -9.11 2.93 -3.04 -8.70 2.98
BGHIP 3.66 2.18 -0.61 7.93 3.73 -0.61 8.25
ICDP 0.44 2.17 -3.81 4.68 0.44 -3.74 4.80
Northern Bay of Biscay PA -16.29 2.70 -21.57 -11.01 -15.03 -19.40 -10.42
ANT -3.04 3.94 -10.77 4.68 -3.00 -10.21 4.79
FLU -4.64 2.23 -9.01 -0.27 -4.54 -8.62 -0.27
PYR -3.33 2.24 -7.72 1.05 -3.28 -7.43 1.06
BAA 0.31 2.39 -4.37 4.98 0.31 -4.28 5.11
CHR -0.42 2.25 -4.84 4.00 -0.42 -4.72 4.08
BAP 4.13 2.59 -0.94 9.20 4.21 -0.94 9.64
BBKF -3.71 2.97 -9.54 2.12 -3.64 -9.10 2.14
DBAHA -1.73 3.30 -8.19 4.73 -1.71 -7.86 4.85
BGHIP 1.91 2.40 -2.79 6.61 1.93 -2.75 6.83
ICDP 0.89 2.42 -3.86 5.64 0.89 -3.79 5.80
Iberian Sea PA 3.26 1.60 0.12 6.41 3.32 0.12 6.61
ANT -4.07 1.77 -7.53 -0.61 -3.99 -7.26 -0.60
FLU -1.22 1.58 -4.32 1.88 -1.21 -4.23 1.90
PYR -1.69 1.59 -4.81 1.44 -1.68 -4.70 1.45
BAA -1.06 1.61 -4.22 2.10 -1.05 -4.13 2.12
CHR -2.05 1.60 -5.18 1.08 -2.03 -5.05 1.08
BAP 0.48 1.65 -2.76 3.72 0.48 -2.72 3.79
BEP -1.25 1.61 -4.41 1.91 -1.24 -4.32 1.93
BBKF -1.86 1.60 -4.99 1.27 -1.84 -4.87 1.28
DBAHA -2.05 2.01 -5.99 1.88 -2.03 -5.81 1.90
BGHIP -0.06 1.59 -3.17 3.06 -0.06 -3.12 3.11
ICDP 0.38 1.61 -2.79 3.54 0.38 -2.75 3.60


Regional status compared to the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional status by PAH: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional status by region: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the EAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the EAC

Note that to see why some points might be coloured blue, it is necessary to look ahead to the next section, where status is compared to the BAC. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to present the assessment of status relative to the EAC with the assessment of status relative to the BAC because the ratio of the BAC to the EAC can vary between PAHs and species.

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) and the regional status trend by PAH


Regional status


Regional status by PAH


Regional status by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log EAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the EAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge -5.65 0.63 -4.62 0.00 0.01
Northern North Sea -3.08 0.58 -2.13 0.05 0.12
Skagerrak and Kattegat -3.72 0.58 -2.77 0.02 0.06
Southern North Sea -3.42 0.58 -2.47 0.03 0.08
Channel -3.90 0.57 -2.96 0.02 0.05
Irish and Scottish West Coast -4.21 0.58 -3.26 0.01 0.04
Irish Sea -3.00 0.57 -2.06 0.05 0.13
Celtic Sea -4.19 0.57 -3.25 0.02 0.04
Northern Bay of Biscay -4.04 0.57 -3.11 0.02 0.04
Iberian Sea -3.47 0.57 -2.54 0.03 0.08


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log EAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the EAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region PAH status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge PA -6.77 0.43 -6.06 0.00 0.00
ANT -6.23 0.38 -5.62 0.00 0.00
FLU -3.80 0.36 -3.21 0.02 0.04
PYR -3.92 0.33 -3.38 0.02 0.03
BAA -4.78 0.33 -4.23 0.01 0.01
CHR
BAP -7.55 0.39 -6.90 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -5.34 0.36 -4.75 0.00 0.01
ICDP
Northern North Sea NAP -3.80 0.24 -3.40 0.02 0.03
PA -4.44 0.19 -4.12 0.01 0.02
ANT -4.42 0.20 -4.08 0.01 0.02
FLU -1.30 0.19 -0.98 0.27 0.38
PYR -1.18 0.19 -0.87 0.31 0.42
BAA -2.22 0.19 -1.90 0.11 0.15
CHR
BAP -4.60 0.26 -4.18 0.01 0.02
BGHIP -2.69 0.19 -2.38 0.07 0.09
ICDP
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP -4.07 0.21 -3.72 0.02 0.02
PA -4.82 0.19 -4.51 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.16 0.21 -4.82 0.01 0.01
FLU -1.99 0.19 -1.67 0.14 0.19
PYR -2.07 0.19 -1.76 0.13 0.17
BAA -2.81 0.19 -2.50 0.06 0.08
CHR
BAP -5.42 0.20 -5.09 0.00 0.01
BGHIP -3.40 0.19 -3.08 0.03 0.05
ICDP
Southern North Sea NAP -3.12 0.21 -2.78 0.04 0.06
PA -4.68 0.19 -4.37 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.34 0.21 -4.99 0.00 0.01
FLU -1.68 0.19 -1.37 0.19 0.26
PYR -1.68 0.19 -1.37 0.19 0.25
BAA -2.52 0.20 -2.19 0.08 0.11
CHR
BAP -5.22 0.20 -4.89 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -3.14 0.20 -2.82 0.04 0.06
ICDP
Channel NAP -6.07 0.18 -5.78 0.00 0.00
PA -4.87 0.17 -4.58 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.04 0.18 -4.73 0.01 0.01
FLU -1.73 0.17 -1.44 0.18 0.24
PYR -1.99 0.17 -1.71 0.14 0.18
BAA -2.84 0.17 -2.56 0.06 0.08
CHR
BAP -5.49 0.17 -5.20 0.00 0.01
BGHIP -3.21 0.17 -2.93 0.04 0.05
ICDP
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP -5.14 0.44 -4.42 0.01 0.01
PA -4.64 0.18 -4.34 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.59 0.21 -5.25 0.00 0.01
FLU -2.12 0.19 -1.81 0.12 0.16
PYR -2.21 0.19 -1.91 0.11 0.15
BAA -3.55 0.19 -3.23 0.03 0.04
CHR
BAP -6.46 0.19 -6.14 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -4.00 0.19 -3.69 0.02 0.02
ICDP
Irish Sea NAP -4.79 0.21 -4.45 0.01 0.01
PA -4.04 0.15 -3.79 0.02 0.02
ANT -4.42 0.17 -4.15 0.01 0.02
FLU -0.80 0.15 -0.54 0.45 0.58
PYR -0.79 0.15 -0.54 0.45 0.58
BAA -2.06 0.15 -1.80 0.13 0.16
CHR
BAP -4.64 0.16 -4.39 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -2.43 0.15 -2.17 0.09 0.11
ICDP
Celtic Sea NAP -5.65 0.22 -5.28 0.00 0.01
PA -4.93 0.16 -4.67 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.62 0.18 -5.33 0.00 0.00
FLU -2.19 0.16 -1.93 0.11 0.15
PYR -2.17 0.16 -1.90 0.11 0.15
BAA -3.35 0.16 -3.08 0.04 0.05
CHR
BAP -6.09 0.16 -5.82 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.52 0.16 -3.26 0.03 0.04
ICDP
Northern Bay of Biscay NAP -5.99 0.19 -5.68 0.00 0.00
PA -5.16 0.15 -4.92 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.20 0.16 -4.93 0.01 0.01
FLU -1.96 0.15 -1.72 0.14 0.18
PYR -1.96 0.15 -1.73 0.14 0.18
BAA -2.96 0.15 -2.71 0.05 0.07
CHR
BAP -5.77 0.15 -5.53 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.34 0.15 -3.10 0.04 0.05
ICDP
Iberian Sea PA -4.25 0.14 -4.02 0.01 0.02
ANT -5.69 0.15 -5.44 0.00 0.00
FLU -1.46 0.14 -1.23 0.23 0.29
PYR -1.53 0.14 -1.31 0.22 0.27
BAA -2.42 0.14 -2.19 0.09 0.11
CHR
BAP -4.93 0.14 -4.69 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -2.88 0.14 -2.65 0.06 0.07
ICDP


Regional status compared to the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional status by PAH: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional status by region: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the BAC
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • orange: there is no EAC and the mean concentration is not significantly below the BAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the EAC

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) and the regional status trend by PAH


Regional status


Regional status by PAH


Regional status by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log BAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the BAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge -1.74 0.31 -1.22 0.18 0.29
Northern North Sea 0.95 0.21 1.29 2.57 3.62
Skagerrak and Kattegat 0.28 0.20 0.61 1.32 1.84
Southern North Sea 0.51 0.20 0.84 1.66 2.32
Channel 0.42 0.19 0.74 1.51 2.09
Irish and Scottish West Coast -0.15 0.20 0.18 0.86 1.20
Irish Sea 1.20 0.18 1.49 3.31 4.42
Celtic Sea -0.01 0.18 0.29 0.99 1.34
Northern Bay of Biscay 0.23 0.17 0.52 1.26 1.68
Iberian Sea 0.73 0.16 1.00 2.08 2.72


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log BAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the BAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region PAH status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge PA -1.82 0.35 -1.26 0.16 0.28
ANT
FLU -1.69 0.33 -1.15 0.18 0.32
PYR -1.57 0.32 -1.05 0.21 0.35
BAA -1.42 0.32 -0.90 0.24 0.41
CHR -2.38 0.32 -1.86 0.09 0.16
BAP -1.61 0.34 -1.05 0.20 0.35
BGHIP -1.60 0.33 -1.06 0.20 0.35
ICDP -1.81 0.33 -1.26 0.16 0.28
Northern North Sea NAP
PA 0.63 0.20 0.96 1.89 2.60
ANT
FLU 0.90 0.19 1.22 2.46 3.39
PYR 1.19 0.19 1.51 3.28 4.52
BAA 1.20 0.20 1.53 3.33 4.60
CHR 0.71 0.22 1.08 2.04 2.93
BAP 1.27 0.23 1.64 3.55 5.17
BGHIP 1.06 0.19 1.38 2.89 3.98
ICDP 0.59 0.20 0.93 1.81 2.53
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP
PA 0.22 0.19 0.54 1.25 1.71
ANT
FLU 0.23 0.19 0.54 1.26 1.72
PYR 0.37 0.19 0.68 1.45 1.98
BAA 0.61 0.19 0.92 1.84 2.52
CHR -0.16 0.20 0.17 0.86 1.18
BAP 0.56 0.20 0.89 1.75 2.43
BGHIP 0.34 0.19 0.66 1.41 1.94
ICDP 0.03 0.20 0.36 1.03 1.43
Southern North Sea NAP
PA 0.38 0.19 0.69 1.46 1.99
ANT
FLU 0.51 0.19 0.82 1.66 2.27
PYR 0.69 0.19 1.00 1.99 2.72
BAA 0.85 0.20 1.18 2.33 3.24
CHR -0.05 0.19 0.26 0.95 1.30
BAP 0.74 0.20 1.07 2.10 2.92
BGHIP 0.58 0.20 0.90 1.79 2.47
ICDP 0.37 0.20 0.70 1.44 2.01
Channel NAP
PA 0.19 0.18 0.48 1.21 1.62
ANT
FLU 0.47 0.18 0.76 1.60 2.14
PYR 0.42 0.18 0.71 1.53 2.04
BAA 0.63 0.18 0.92 1.87 2.50
CHR 0.27 0.18 0.56 1.31 1.74
BAP 0.57 0.18 0.86 1.77 2.37
BGHIP 0.57 0.18 0.86 1.76 2.36
ICDP 0.21 0.18 0.50 1.23 1.65
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP
PA 0.34 0.19 0.64 1.40 1.90
ANT
FLU 0.07 0.19 0.38 1.07 1.46
PYR 0.18 0.19 0.49 1.19 1.63
BAA -0.04 0.19 0.28 0.96 1.32
CHR -0.52 0.19 -0.21 0.60 0.81
BAP -0.32 0.19 -0.00 0.72 1.00
BGHIP -0.18 0.19 0.13 0.83 1.14
ICDP -0.73 0.19 -0.42 0.48 0.66
Irish Sea NAP
PA 1.03 0.16 1.29 2.80 3.63
ANT
FLU 1.39 0.16 1.65 4.01 5.19
PYR 1.59 0.16 1.85 4.92 6.36
BAA 1.40 0.16 1.65 4.04 5.22
CHR 0.59 0.16 0.85 1.80 2.33
BAP 1.40 0.16 1.66 4.05 5.26
BGHIP 1.34 0.16 1.60 3.83 4.95
ICDP 0.83 0.16 1.09 2.29 2.97
Celtic Sea NAP
PA 0.09 0.16 0.36 1.09 1.43
ANT
FLU 0.02 0.16 0.28 1.02 1.33
PYR 0.24 0.16 0.51 1.27 1.66
BAA 0.13 0.16 0.40 1.13 1.49
CHR -0.49 0.16 -0.22 0.61 0.80
BAP -0.02 0.17 0.26 0.98 1.29
BGHIP 0.23 0.17 0.50 1.26 1.66
ICDP -0.27 0.16 0.00 0.76 1.00
Northern Bay of Biscay NAP
PA -0.09 0.15 0.15 0.91 1.17
ANT
FLU 0.25 0.15 0.49 1.28 1.64
PYR 0.44 0.15 0.69 1.56 1.99
BAA 0.51 0.15 0.76 1.66 2.13
CHR -0.12 0.15 0.12 0.88 1.13
BAP 0.30 0.15 0.55 1.35 1.73
BGHIP 0.44 0.15 0.69 1.55 1.98
ICDP 0.14 0.15 0.38 1.15 1.47
Iberian Sea PA 0.67 0.14 0.90 1.95 2.46
ANT
FLU 0.63 0.14 0.86 1.88 2.36
PYR 0.77 0.14 0.99 2.15 2.70
BAA 0.93 0.14 1.16 2.53 3.18
CHR 0.49 0.14 0.71 1.63 2.04
BAP 1.00 0.14 1.24 2.73 3.45
BGHIP 0.79 0.14 1.01 2.19 2.76
ICDP 0.59 0.14 0.83 1.81 2.29


PAH profiles

The profile of concentrations across PAHs can sometimes be useful for examining sources, and for comparing concentrations across regions where assessment criteria are not available. Profiles were examined by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: mean log concentration
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + estimation variance + residual variation

where, for each time series, the mean log concentration is the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the estimation variance is the variance associated with this estimate.

The estimated PAH concentration profiles by region are shown below with pointwise 95% confidence limits. The units are ug/kg dw.