Regional assessment of status against human health thresholds in PBDE concentrations in biota

Overview

This document provides additional regional assessments of the status of PBDE concentrations in biota based on human health rather than environmental thresholds. The regional assessments are part of the 2024 OSPAR CEMP assessment and concern the PBDE SBDE6 which is compared against the Quality Standard human health (QShh). Methodological details are only described briefly: further information can be found here.


Summary of individual time series results

This section summarises the individual time series assessments of trend and status for SBDE6. This is the only place where trends are presented as the focus of this document is on status relative to the QShh.

The first tab show the trend and status assessments for SBDE6. The colours have the following meaning:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not signficantly below the QShh
  • black: there are no assessment criteria available

And the shapes have the following meaning:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05) or there are too few years to test for trends
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The second set of tabs give:

  • the number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions
  • the number of time series with green or red status in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions


SBDE6


Trend summary (numbers)

Number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0
no trend 4
downward trend 2
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0
no trend 1
downward trend 0
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0
no trend 3
downward trend 1
total upward trend 0
no trend 8
downward trend 3
2 Norwegian Trench upward trend 0
no trend 3
downward trend 2
Northern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 5
downward trend 0
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 0
no trend 11
downward trend 4
Southern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 10
downward trend 5
Channel upward trend 0
no trend 21
downward trend 2
total upward trend 0
no trend 50
downward trend 13
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 1
no trend 21
downward trend 8
Irish Sea upward trend 0
no trend 11
downward trend 19
Celtic Sea upward trend 1
no trend 17
downward trend 9
total upward trend 2
no trend 49
downward trend 36
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0
no trend 24
downward trend 2
Iberian Coast upward trend 1
no trend 16
downward trend 5
Gulf of Cadiz upward trend 0
no trend 1
downward trend 0
total upward trend 1
no trend 41
downward trend 7


Trend summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0
no trend 67
downward trend 33
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0
no trend 100
downward trend 0
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0
no trend 75
downward trend 25
total upward trend 0
no trend 73
downward trend 27
2 Norwegian Trench upward trend 0
no trend 60
downward trend 40
Northern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 100
downward trend 0
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 0
no trend 73
downward trend 27
Southern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 67
downward trend 33
Channel upward trend 0
no trend 91
downward trend 9
total upward trend 0
no trend 79
downward trend 21
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 3
no trend 70
downward trend 27
Irish Sea upward trend 0
no trend 37
downward trend 63
Celtic Sea upward trend 4
no trend 63
downward trend 33
total upward trend 2
no trend 56
downward trend 42
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0
no trend 92
downward trend 8
Iberian Coast upward trend 4
no trend 73
downward trend 23
Gulf of Cadiz upward trend 0
no trend 100
downward trend 0
total upward trend 2
no trend 84
downward trend 14


Status summary (numbers)

Number of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea green 0
red 6
Norwegian Sea green 0
red 4
total green 0
red 10
2 Norwegian Trench green 0
red 5
Northern North Sea green 0
red 13
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 0
red 16
Southern North Sea green 0
red 32
Channel green 0
red 26
total green 0
red 92
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 0
red 41
Irish Sea green 0
red 37
Celtic Sea green 0
red 36
total green 0
red 114
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 0
red 32
Iberian Coast green 0
red 20
total green 0
red 52


Status summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea green 0
red 100
Norwegian Sea green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
2 Norwegian Trench green 0
red 100
Northern North Sea green 0
red 100
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 0
red 100
Southern North Sea green 0
red 100
Channel green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 0
red 100
Irish Sea green 0
red 100
Celtic Sea green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 0
red 100
Iberian Coast green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100


Regional assessment - methods

For a regional status assessment, the status of each time series is summarised by the difference between the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the log QShh. The regional status for SBDE6 is then estimated by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: status (mean log concentration - log QShh)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: station + status estimation variation + residual variation

There are no restrictions on the time series used in the status meta-analysis based on the classification of the monitoring station; time series from baseline, representative and impacted stations are all included. However, the few time series with a non-parametric assessment of status must be excluded, because there is no summary measure of status to use in the mixed model.

The meta-analysis is restricted to regions with at least three status stations with good geographic spread.

The results of the status regional assessments are back-transformed for presentation. The estimated regional status is then interpreted as the ratio of the mean regional concentration to the assessment concentration. For example, a value of 1 indicates that the mean regional concentration is equal to the assessment concentration; a value of 0.5 indicates that it is half the assessment concentration, and a value of 2 indicates that it is twice the assessment concentration.


Regional assessment - availability of time series

This section provides more detail on the number and geographic spread of the time series available for the meta-analyses. The tabs show the stations with parametric status assessments for each OSPAR region in turn. The following regions have an insufficient number or time series or spread of stations and are excluded from the regional assessment: Gulf of Cadiz and Norwegian Sea. `


OSPAR region 1


OSPAR region 2


OSPAR region 3


OSPAR region 4


Regional status compared to the Quality Standard human health (QShh)

The first 2 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status for SBDE6 with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the QShh

The final tab shows the estimates of the regional status in SBDE6.


Regional status


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log QShh
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the QShh
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Barents Sea 1.58 0.29 2.07 4.88 7.89
Norwegian Trench 2.22 0.32 2.74 9.20 15.51
Northern North Sea 3.03 0.20 3.37 20.67 28.95
Skagerrak and Kattegat 2.09 0.19 2.40 8.07 10.99
Southern North Sea 2.40 0.15 2.65 11.02 14.10
Channel 1.64 0.15 1.88 5.16 6.56
Irish and Scottish West Coast 2.84 0.12 3.04 17.09 20.82
Irish Sea 2.93 0.12 3.13 18.71 22.86
Celtic Sea 2.42 0.12 2.63 11.30 13.85
Northern Bay of Biscay 1.71 0.12 1.91 5.51 6.75
Iberian Coast 2.52 0.16 2.78 12.38 16.17