Regional assessment of status against human health thresholds in PBDE concentrations in biota

Overview

This document provides additional regional assessments of the status of PBDE concentrations in biota based on human health rather than environmental thresholds. The regional assessments are part of the 2022 OSPAR CEMP assessment and concern the PBDE SBDE6 which is compared against the Quality Standard human health (QShh). Methodological details are only described briefly: further information can be found here.


Summary of individual time series results

This section summarises the individual time series assessments of trend and status for SBDE6. This is the only place where trends are presented as the focus of this document is on status relative to the QShh.

The first tab show the trend and status assessments for SBDE6. The colours have the following meaning:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not signficantly below the QShh
  • black: there are no assessment criteria available

And the shapes have the following meaning:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05) or there are too few years to test for trends
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The second set of tabs give:

  • the number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions
  • the number of time series with green or red status in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions


SBDE6


Trend summary (numbers)

Number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0
no trend 3
downward trend 1
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0
no trend 2
downward trend 1
total upward trend 0
no trend 5
downward trend 2
2 Norwegian Trench upward trend 0
no trend 2
downward trend 3
Northern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 5
downward trend 1
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 0
no trend 3
downward trend 2
Southern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 10
downward trend 9
Channel upward trend 0
no trend 18
downward trend 3
total upward trend 0
no trend 38
downward trend 18
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0
no trend 12
downward trend 6
Irish Sea upward trend 0
no trend 8
downward trend 21
Celtic Sea upward trend 1
no trend 9
downward trend 7
total upward trend 1
no trend 29
downward trend 34
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0
no trend 23
downward trend 0
Iberian Sea upward trend 2
no trend 19
downward trend 3
total upward trend 2
no trend 42
downward trend 3


Trend summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0
no trend 75
downward trend 25
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0
no trend 67
downward trend 33
total upward trend 0
no trend 71
downward trend 29
2 Norwegian Trench upward trend 0
no trend 40
downward trend 60
Northern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 83
downward trend 17
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 0
no trend 60
downward trend 40
Southern North Sea upward trend 0
no trend 53
downward trend 47
Channel upward trend 0
no trend 86
downward trend 14
total upward trend 0
no trend 68
downward trend 32
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0
no trend 67
downward trend 33
Irish Sea upward trend 0
no trend 28
downward trend 72
Celtic Sea upward trend 6
no trend 53
downward trend 41
total upward trend 2
no trend 45
downward trend 53
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0
no trend 100
downward trend 0
Iberian Sea upward trend 8
no trend 79
downward trend 13
total upward trend 4
no trend 89
downward trend 7


Status summary (numbers)

Number of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea green 0
red 6
Norwegian Sea green 0
red 4
total green 0
red 10
2 Norwegian Trench green 0
red 5
Northern North Sea green 0
red 12
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 0
red 15
Southern North Sea green 0
red 31
Channel green 0
red 25
total green 0
red 88
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 0
red 28
Irish Sea green 0
red 33
Celtic Sea green 0
red 29
total green 0
red 90
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 0
red 32
Iberian Sea green 0
red 24
total green 0
red 56


Status summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status SBDE6
1 Barents Sea green 0
red 100
Norwegian Sea green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
2 Norwegian Trench green 0
red 100
Northern North Sea green 0
red 100
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 0
red 100
Southern North Sea green 0
red 100
Channel green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 0
red 100
Irish Sea green 0
red 100
Celtic Sea green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 0
red 100
Iberian Sea green 0
red 100
total green 0
red 100


Regional assessment - methods

For a regional status assessment, the status of each time series is summarised by the difference between the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the log QShh. The regional status for SBDE6 is then estimated by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: status (mean log concentration - log QShh)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: station + status estimation variation + residual variation

There are no restrictions on the time series used in the status meta-analysis based on the classification of the monitoring station; time series from baseline, representative and impacted stations are all included. However, the few time series with a non-parametric assessment of status must be excluded, because there is no summary measure of status to use in the mixed model.

The meta-analysis is restricted to regions with at least three status stations with good geographic spread.

The results of the status regional assessments are back-transformed for presentation. The estimated regional status is then interpreted as the ratio of the mean regional concentration to the assessment concentration. For example, a value of 1 indicates that the mean regional concentration is equal to the assessment concentration; a value of 0.5 indicates that it is half the assessment concentration, and a value of 2 indicates that it is twice the assessment concentration.


Regional assessment - availability of time series

This section provides more detail on the number and geographic spread of the time series available for the meta-analyses. The tabs show the stations with parametric status assessments for each OSPAR region in turn. The following regions have an insufficient number or time series or spread of stations and are excluded from the regional assessment: Norwegian Sea.


OSPAR region 1


OSPAR region 2


OSPAR region 3


OSPAR region 4


Regional status compared to the Quality Standard human health (QShh)

The first 2 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status for SBDE6 with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the QShh

The final tab shows the estimates of the regional status in SBDE6.


Regional status


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log QShh
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the QShh
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Barents Sea 1.76 0.32 2.28 5.81 9.76
Norwegian Trench 2.56 0.34 3.12 12.93 22.64
Northern North Sea 2.95 0.25 3.35 19.02 28.54
Skagerrak and Kattegat 2.21 0.20 2.54 9.11 12.70
Southern North Sea 2.50 0.16 2.76 12.17 15.77
Channel 1.73 0.15 1.98 5.63 7.23
Irish and Scottish West Coast 2.93 0.15 3.18 18.69 24.11
Irish Sea 3.11 0.13 3.33 22.49 28.07
Celtic Sea 2.25 0.15 2.49 9.46 12.01
Northern Bay of Biscay 1.55 0.14 1.77 4.70 5.87
Iberian Sea 3.07 0.16 3.32 21.49 27.74