Regional assessment of status and trends in PAH concentrations in biota

  • Overview
  • Summary of individual time series results
  • Regional assessment - methods
  • Regional assessment - availability of time series
  • Regional trends
  • Regional status compared to the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • Regional status compared to the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • PAH profiles

Overview

The 2024 OSPAR CEMP assessment describes the status and trends of contaminant concentrations in biota and sediment at monitoring stations in the OSPAR area. Assessments are made for a large number of time series, each of a single contaminant in a single species and tissue (for biota) or matrix (for sediment) at a single monitoring station. This document is one of a series that synthesises the results of the individual time series to assess status and trends at the MIME regional level. In particular, it considers PAH concentrations in biota, where the PAHs are NAP, ACNLE, ACNE, FLE, PA, ANT, DBT, FLU, PYR, BAA, CHR, BAP, BEP, BBKF, DBAHA, PER, BGHIP, ICDP. For simplicity, the term ‘region’ is used throughout to describe MIME regions. OSPAR regions are always referred to as such.

The regional status assessments presented in this document are based on environmental thresholds. Regional status assessments based on human health thresholds can be found here.

The regional status assessments presented in this document are integrated with regional status assessments for other contaminants and biological effects using the CHASE approach. Details can be found here.

The following sections:

  • summarise the individual time series results
  • describe the methods used to combine the individual time series results to estimate regional status and trends
  • present the estimates of regional trends
  • present the estimates of regional status


Summary of individual time series results

A time series of PAH concentrations is assessed for status if:

  • there is at least one year with data in the period 2017 to 2022
  • there are at least three years of data over the whole time series
  • a parametric model can be fitted to the data and used to estimate the mean concentration in the final monitoring year (or, occasionally, if a non-parametric test of status is applied)

The conditions are more stringent for trends. Specifically, a time series is assessed for trends if:

  • there is at least one year with data in the period 2017 to 2022
  • there are at least five years of data over the whole time series
  • a parametric model can be fitted to the data and used to estimate the trend in mean concentration

Note that all trend assessments for individual time series and most status assessments are based on the fit of a parametric model. This is important because only the parametric results are passed into the regional assessments in the following sections. 198 of the 3254 PAH time series were assessed for status using a non-parametric test.

The first tab below shows all the monitoring stations where there are individual time series assessments of trend or status for PAHs. The purple circles are stations where there is a trend assessment for at least one PAH, and the light blue cirles are stations where there are only status assessments.

The next set of tabs show the trend and status assessments for each PAH in turn. The colours have the following meaning:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • orange: there is no EAC and the mean concentration is not significantly below the BAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not signficantly below the EAC
  • black: there are no assessment criteria available

And the shapes have the following meaning:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05) or there are too few years to test for trends
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The final set of tabs give:

  • the number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions
  • the number of time series with blue, green, orange or red status in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions

Note that only ten of the PAHs have assessment criteria: NAP, PA, ANT, FLU, PYR, BAA, CHR, BAP, BGHIP, ICDP. Of these, NAP and ANT only have an EAC and CHR and ICDP only have a BAC.


Stations


NAP


ACNLE


ACNE


FLE


PA


ANT


DBT


FLU


PYR


BAA


CHR


BAP


BEP


BBKF


DBAHA


PER


BGHIP


ICDP


Trend summary (numbers)

Number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP ACNLE ACNE FLE PA ANT DBT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BEP BBKF DBAHA PER BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6
downward trend 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 9
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 14
downward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5
downward trend 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 7
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 1 0 1 3 4 2 0 4 2 2 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 25
downward trend 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 2 18
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 14 7 8 4 11 11 0 8 5 2 0 1 6 0 0 1 2 0 80
downward trend 1 0 0 1 7 3 0 8 11 1 1 1 5 1 0 1 1 1 43
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 14
no trend 4 0 3 2 9 5 3 8 8 6 3 5 3 10 0 3 6 5 83
downward trend 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 4 5 4 3 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 29
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
no trend 9 0 11 3 14 5 0 14 14 7 9 8 4 12 3 4 9 6 132
downward trend 1 0 1 3 4 2 0 3 3 5 6 4 1 4 1 1 4 3 46
Channel upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
no trend 10 0 0 0 11 14 0 17 14 20 20 18 0 18 16 0 19 17 194
downward trend 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 5 8 4 3 2 0 3 4 0 3 4 45
total upward trend 1 0 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 20
no trend 37 7 22 9 45 35 3 47 41 35 32 32 13 40 19 8 36 28 489
downward trend 3 1 2 6 18 8 0 20 27 14 13 8 7 10 5 2 10 9 163
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 13
no trend 0 13 16 14 17 13 0 15 15 13 13 14 0 16 12 0 17 15 203
downward trend 1 1 1 3 1 4 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 19
Irish Sea upward trend 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 7 3 4 8 4 0 1 0 0 7 3 44
no trend 4 12 13 13 20 14 1 16 17 13 10 12 2 9 8 1 14 16 195
downward trend 0 1 0 1 2 4 0 2 4 5 5 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 34
Celtic Sea upward trend 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 15
no trend 0 10 7 9 19 9 0 19 14 19 19 22 0 20 17 0 21 23 228
downward trend 0 0 0 1 3 11 0 2 7 5 4 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 38
total upward trend 1 2 5 0 5 0 0 11 6 4 14 7 0 3 0 0 10 4 72
no trend 4 35 36 36 56 36 1 50 46 45 42 48 2 45 37 1 52 54 626
downward trend 1 2 1 5 6 19 0 5 13 14 9 2 1 1 6 2 2 2 91
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 0 0 0 0 11 13 0 25 21 26 26 24 0 17 17 0 27 27 234
downward trend 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 6 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 21
Iberian Coast upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 0 0 14 9 0 3 4 10 5 13 6 6 8 0 3 8 89
downward trend 0 0 0 0 6 11 0 17 16 10 15 7 12 14 1 0 17 11 137
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 0 0 0 0 25 22 0 28 25 36 31 37 6 23 25 0 30 35 323
downward trend 0 0 0 0 13 12 0 19 22 11 16 9 12 15 1 0 17 11 158


Trend summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP ACNLE ACNE FLE PA ANT DBT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BEP BBKF DBAHA PER BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 0 100 100 100 0 50 0 0 0 50 0 0 40
downward trend 100 0 0 0 100 50 100 100 100 50 100 100 60
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 100 100 75 100 100 100 0 100 100 88
downward trend 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 100 0 0 12
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 0 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 42
downward trend 0 100 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 58
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 100 0 100 100 100 67 57 50 50 100 0 80 0 33 58
downward trend 0 100 0 0 0 33 43 50 50 0 100 20 100 67 42
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
no trend 93 100 89 80 61 79 50 31 67 0 50 55 0 50 67 0 64
downward trend 7 0 0 20 39 21 50 69 33 100 50 45 100 50 33 100 35
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 16 0 20 20 17 17 0 14 7 9 14 14 0 8 100 0 0 0 11
no trend 67 0 60 40 75 83 100 57 57 55 43 72 75 77 0 100 75 83 66
downward trend 17 100 20 40 8 0 0 29 36 36 43 14 25 15 0 0 25 17 23
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0 5 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
no trend 90 92 50 74 71 0 82 82 58 60 67 80 75 75 80 69 67 73
downward trend 10 8 50 21 29 0 18 18 42 40 33 20 25 25 20 31 33 25
Channel upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 1
no trend 100 65 82 77 64 83 87 86 86 80 86 77 80
downward trend 0 35 18 23 36 17 13 9 14 20 14 18 19
total upward trend 3 0 8 6 5 2 40 3 2 2 2 5 0 2 4 0 0 2 3
no trend 90 88 84 56 68 80 60 68 59 70 70 76 65 78 76 80 78 74 73
downward trend 7 12 8 38 27 18 0 29 39 28 28 19 35 20 20 20 22 24 24
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 0 13 0 0 0 0 11 6 0 28 6 6 0 0 6 6
no trend 0 81 94 82 94 76 83 83 76 72 88 94 100 100 94 86
downward trend 100 6 6 18 6 24 6 11 24 0 6 0 0 0 0 8
Irish Sea upward trend 20 0 13 0 15 0 0 28 12 18 35 23 0 10 0 0 30 14 16
no trend 80 92 87 93 77 78 100 64 71 59 43 71 67 90 80 33 61 76 71
downward trend 0 8 0 7 8 22 0 8 17 23 22 6 33 0 20 67 9 10 13
Celtic Sea upward trend 0 30 0 4 0 9 9 0 4 8 4 0 12 0 5
no trend 100 70 90 83 45 82 61 79 79 92 91 81 88 100 81
downward trend 0 0 10 13 55 9 30 21 17 0 5 19 0 0 14
total upward trend 16 5 12 0 7 0 0 17 9 6 21 12 0 6 0 0 16 7 9
no trend 67 90 86 88 84 65 100 76 71 72 65 84 67 92 86 33 81 90 79
downward trend 17 5 2 12 9 35 0 7 20 22 14 4 33 2 14 67 3 3 12
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 61 93 93 78 96 96 89 94 100 100 100 92
downward trend 39 7 7 22 4 4 7 6 0 0 0 8
Iberian Coast upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 70 45 15 20 50 25 65 33 30 89 15 42 39
downward trend 30 55 85 80 50 75 35 67 70 11 85 58 61
total upward trend 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
no trend 66 65 60 53 77 66 79 33 61 96 64 76 67
downward trend 34 35 40 47 23 34 19 67 39 4 36 24 33


Status summary (numbers)

Number of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP PA ANT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea blue 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 4
green 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 10
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
red 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Greenland-Scotland ridge blue 0 0 0 5 6 4 5 1 0 1 22
green 7 6 7 2 2 3 0 6 7 0 40
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 8
red 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Norwegian Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
green 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 8
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 0 0 6 6 5 5 1 1 2 26
green 9 9 10 3 4 5 0 9 9 0 58
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 10
red 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4
2 Northern North Sea blue 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
green 16 20 20 14 15 17 0 11 20 0 133
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 18 22
red 1 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10
Skagerrak and Kattegat blue 0 1 0 2 2 1 5 1 1 0 13
green 12 20 17 17 18 18 0 19 18 0 139
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 17 26
red 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 8
Southern North Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5
green 13 23 22 19 19 23 0 20 22 0 161
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 21 39
red 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 8
Channel blue 0 4 0 3 5 3 7 4 2 5 33
green 22 21 25 22 18 22 0 21 23 0 174
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 19 37
red 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
total blue 0 5 0 7 7 4 17 5 3 5 53
green 63 84 84 72 70 80 0 71 83 0 607
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 75 124
red 6 0 0 8 7 3 0 2 1 0 27
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast blue 0 1 0 4 3 3 12 9 15 23 70
green 2 36 34 33 33 34 0 27 22 0 221
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 14 39
red 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Irish Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
green 13 34 34 21 22 25 0 32 33 0 214
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 31 61
red 1 0 0 11 9 7 0 1 0 0 29
Celtic Sea blue 0 3 0 13 12 7 20 7 7 15 84
green 6 29 31 19 20 25 0 25 25 0 180
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 17 29
red 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
total blue 0 4 0 17 15 10 34 16 22 38 156
green 21 99 99 73 75 84 0 84 80 0 615
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 62 129
red 1 0 3 11 10 7 0 1 0 0 33
4 Northern Bay of Biscay blue 0 10 0 2 1 0 15 3 0 5 36
green 9 22 32 30 31 32 0 29 32 0 217
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 27 44
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iberian Coast blue 0 5 0 8 8 7 10 8 8 9 63
green 0 18 23 12 11 16 0 15 15 0 110
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 14 29
red 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 7
total blue 0 15 0 10 9 7 25 11 8 14 99
green 9 40 55 42 42 48 0 44 47 0 327
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 41 73
red 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 7


Status summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status NAP PA ANT FLU PYR BAA CHR BAP BGHIP ICDP total
1 Barents Sea blue 0 0 0 50 0 50 0 50 50 22
green 50 100 100 0 50 50 100 50 0 55
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 6
red 50 0 0 50 50 0 0 0 0 17
Greenland-Scotland ridge blue 0 0 0 71 75 57 71 14 0 14 31
green 100 86 100 29 25 43 0 86 100 0 56
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 86 11
red 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Norwegian Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
green 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 89
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 11
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 0 0 60 55 50 71 10 10 20 27
green 90 90 100 30 36 50 0 90 90 0 59
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 80 10
red 10 10 0 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 4
2 Northern North Sea blue 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
green 94 100 100 74 83 85 0 100 100 0 80
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 13
red 6 0 0 16 17 15 0 0 0 0 6
Skagerrak and Kattegat blue 0 5 0 9 9 5 36 5 5 0 7
green 71 95 100 81 86 95 0 95 95 0 75
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 100 14
red 29 0 0 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 4
Southern North Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 2
green 100 100 100 86 90 100 0 91 96 0 76
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 100 18
red 0 0 0 14 10 0 0 9 4 0 4
Channel blue 0 16 0 12 21 12 28 16 8 21 14
green 100 84 100 88 75 88 0 84 92 0 71
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 79 15
red 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 6 0 8 8 5 26 6 4 6 7
green 91 94 100 83 84 92 0 91 95 0 75
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 94 15
red 9 0 0 9 8 3 0 3 1 0 3
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast blue 0 3 0 11 8 8 32 25 41 62 21
green 100 97 94 89 89 92 0 75 59 0 66
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 38 12
red 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1
Irish Sea blue 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 1
green 93 100 100 66 71 78 0 97 100 0 70
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 94 0 0 100 20
red 7 0 0 34 29 22 0 3 0 0 9
Celtic Sea blue 0 9 0 41 38 22 62 22 22 47 29
green 100 91 97 59 62 78 0 78 78 0 61
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 53 10
red 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total blue 0 4 0 17 15 10 34 16 22 38 17
green 95 96 97 72 75 83 0 83 78 0 66
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 62 14
red 5 0 3 11 10 7 0 1 0 0 3
4 Northern Bay of Biscay blue 0 31 0 6 3 0 47 9 0 16 12
green 100 69 100 94 97 100 0 91 100 0 73
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 84 15
red 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iberian Coast blue 22 0 35 35 30 40 35 35 39 30
green 78 100 52 48 70 0 65 65 0 53
orange 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 61 14
red 0 0 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 3
total blue 0 27 0 18 16 13 44 20 15 25 20
green 100 73 100 76 77 87 0 80 85 0 65
orange 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 75 14
red 0 0 0 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 1


Regional assessment - methods

Tabulating the number of time series with each status category by region provides a quick summary of the individual time series results. However, it does not provide an objective regional assessment of status. Similarly, tabulating the number of time series with an upward or downward trend does not provide an objective regional assessment of trend. This section describes how the individual time series results can by synthesised in a meta-analysis to assess both status and trend at the regional level.

Trends

For a regional trend assessment, the trend in each time series is summarised by the estimated change in log concentration over the last twenty years (or shorter if the time series doesn’t extend that far back). Regional trends are then estimated by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: trend (yearly change in log concentration)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + trend estimation variation + residual variation

The fixed model means that a trend is estimated for each region. Trends in the different PAHs are assumed to be broadly similar, because inputs and control measures are likely to affect all PAHs in a similar way. Each regional trend can thus be interpreted as the common trend in PAH concentrations in that region (i.e. the trend averaged across all PAHs).

The random model has six terms:

  • PAH allows for variation in trend between PAHs common to all regions
  • region.PAH allows for additional variation in trend between PAHs within regions
  • station allows for variation in trend between stations common to all PAHs
  • station.PAH allows for additional variation in trend between stations and PAHs common to all species within stations
  • trend estimation variation is the variance of the trend estimates from the individual time series analysis, assumed known and fixed
  • residual variation is the variation that cannot be explained by any of the fixed effects or the other random effects

The meta-analysis is restricted to time series from monitoring stations that are classified as ‘representative’ or ‘baseline’ (near pristine conditions or only subject to very diffuse inputs). ‘Impacted’ stations (those close to a point source) are omitted because trends there will likely reflect changes due to the point source and will be ‘unrepresentative’ at the regional level.

The meta-analysis is further restricted to:

  • regions with at least three trend stations with good geographic spread. Three stations is considered the minimum required to provide some sort of evidence base at the regional level
  • PAHs with trend information for at least three stations (over all regions): PAHs are treated as random effects in the meta-anlaysis, so information about trends in one PAH can be ‘borrowed’ from the trend information in the other PAHs

Status

For a regional status assessment, the status of each time series is summarised by the difference between the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the log assessment concentration. This ensures that status is always measured on the same scale, even though the assessment concentration might vary between PAHs and species. Essentially the same linear mixed model as for trends is then fitted:

  • response: status (mean log concentration - log assessment concentration)
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + status estimation variation + residual variation

where status estimation variation is the variation in the status estimates from the individual time series analysis, assumed known and fixed.

There are no restrictions on the time series used in the status meta-analysis based on the classification of the monitoring station; time series from baseline, representative and impacted stations are all included. However, the few time series with a non-parametric assessment of status must be excluded, because there is no summary measure of status to use in the mixed model.

Again, the meta-analysis is restricted to regions with at least three status stations with good geographic spread and to PAHs with status information for at least three stations (over all regions).

Presentation

The results of both the trend and status regional assessments are back-transformed for presentation. The estimated regional trend is then interpreted as the percentage yearly change in concentration and the estimated regional status as the ratio of the mean regional concentration to the assessment concentration. To illustrate the latter, a value of 1 indicates that the mean regional concentration is equal to the assessment concentration; a value of 0.5 indicates that it is half the assessment concentration, and a value of 2 indicates that it is twice the assessment concentration.


Regional assessment - availability of time series

This section provides more detail on the number and geographic spread of the time series available for the meta-analyses. The tabs show the stations with parametric trend and status assessments for each OSPAR region in turn, having excluded trend assessments at impacted stations. The purple circles are stations where there is a trend assessment for at least one PAH, and the light blue cirles are stations where there are only status assessments.

The following regions have an insufficient number of time series or spread of stations and are excluded from the regional assessment:

  • trend: Barents Sea, Greenland-Scotland ridge, Norwegian Sea
  • status: Barents Sea, Norwegian Sea


OSPAR region 1


OSPAR region 2


OSPAR region 3


OSPAR region 4


Regional trends

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional trends: estimates of the regional trend (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional trends by PAH: regional trend estimates for each PAH with pointwise 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional trends by region: regional trend estimates for each PAH with pointwise 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the trend estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all these plots have the following interpretation:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05)
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional trend (averaged over PAHs) and the regional trend by PAH


Regional trends


Regional trends by PAH


Regional trends by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend:

  • trend: the estimated mean yearly change in log concentration across the region (multiplied by 100 for presentation)
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • lower, upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits
  • % yearly change: the estimated mean % yearly change in concentration across the region
  • %yc lower, %yc upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits


MIME region trend se lower upper % yearly change %yc lower %yc upper
Northern North Sea -7.22 1.71 -10.57 -3.87 -6.96 -10.03 -3.79
Skagerrak and Kattegat -2.55 2.22 -6.89 1.79 -2.52 -6.66 1.81
Southern North Sea -1.74 1.67 -5.02 1.54 -1.72 -4.89 1.55
Channel -7.73 1.63 -10.92 -4.55 -7.44 -10.34 -4.45
Irish and Scottish West Coast -0.77 1.67 -4.04 2.49 -0.77 -3.96 2.52
Irish Sea 1.67 1.45 -1.18 4.51 1.68 -1.17 4.62
Celtic Sea -2.66 1.54 -5.69 0.36 -2.63 -5.53 0.36
Northern Bay of Biscay -4.43 1.57 -7.51 -1.34 -4.33 -7.24 -1.33
Iberian Coast -7.07 1.61 -10.21 -3.92 -6.82 -9.71 -3.84


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • trend: the estimated mean yearly change in log concentration across the region (multiplied by 100 for presentation)
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • lower, upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits
  • % yearly change: the estimated mean % yearly change in concentration across the region
  • %yc lower, %yc upper: the corresponding pointwise 95% confidence limits


MIME region PAH trend se lower upper % yearly change %yc lower %yc upper
Northern North Sea NAP -5.86 2.37 -10.51 -1.22 -5.69 -9.97 -1.21
ACNLE -5.68 2.62 -10.82 -0.54 -5.52 -10.26 -0.54
ACNE 1.08 2.54 -3.89 6.06 1.09 -3.81 6.24
FLE -6.29 2.34 -10.88 -1.70 -6.10 -10.31 -1.69
PA -6.72 1.68 -10.01 -3.43 -6.50 -9.52 -3.37
ANT -8.04 1.89 -11.75 -4.33 -7.72 -11.09 -4.23
FLU -5.40 1.61 -8.56 -2.24 -5.26 -8.21 -2.22
PYR -5.91 1.60 -9.04 -2.78 -5.74 -8.64 -2.74
BAA -9.76 2.50 -14.67 -4.85 -9.30 -13.64 -4.73
CHR -10.07 2.99 -15.93 -4.21 -9.58 -14.72 -4.12
BAP -7.79 2.96 -13.59 -2.00 -7.50 -12.70 -1.98
BEP -9.22 1.87 -12.88 -5.56 -8.80 -12.08 -5.41
BBKF -8.88 3.00 -14.76 -3.00 -8.49 -13.72 -2.95
PER -11.24 2.76 -16.64 -5.84 -10.63 -15.33 -5.67
BGHIP -4.82 2.45 -9.62 -0.01 -4.70 -9.17 -0.01
ICDP -12.03 2.75 -17.43 -6.63 -11.33 -15.99 -6.41
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP -0.19 2.64 -5.37 4.98 -0.19 -5.22 5.11
ACNE -0.74 2.96 -6.53 5.06 -0.73 -6.32 5.19
FLE -4.58 2.86 -10.18 1.02 -4.48 -9.68 1.03
PA -4.56 2.54 -9.55 0.42 -4.46 -9.11 0.42
ANT -1.41 2.88 -7.06 4.23 -1.40 -6.82 4.32
DBT 0.53 3.17 -5.69 6.74 0.53 -5.53 6.98
FLU -1.07 2.44 -5.85 3.70 -1.07 -5.68 3.77
PYR -2.75 2.31 -7.27 1.77 -2.71 -7.01 1.78
BAA -3.95 2.43 -8.72 0.83 -3.87 -8.35 0.83
CHR -2.23 2.43 -6.99 2.53 -2.21 -6.75 2.56
BAP -1.46 2.76 -6.87 3.94 -1.45 -6.64 4.02
BEP -1.99 2.87 -7.63 3.64 -1.97 -7.34 3.71
BBKF -2.22 2.35 -6.83 2.40 -2.19 -6.60 2.43
DBAHA -4.44 3.22 -10.76 1.88 -4.34 -10.20 1.90
PER -4.09 3.14 -10.24 2.06 -4.00 -9.73 2.08
BGHIP -2.68 3.01 -8.58 3.22 -2.64 -8.22 3.28
ICDP -6.40 3.58 -13.42 0.63 -6.20 -12.56 0.63
Southern North Sea NAP -2.46 2.04 -6.46 1.55 -2.43 -6.26 1.56
ACNE -2.43 1.98 -6.32 1.46 -2.40 -6.12 1.47
FLE -1.66 1.89 -5.37 2.05 -1.65 -5.23 2.07
PA -0.96 1.63 -4.16 2.23 -0.96 -4.07 2.26
ANT -2.01 1.92 -5.78 1.75 -1.99 -5.61 1.77
DBT 5.43 2.66 0.22 10.65 5.59 0.22 11.24
FLU -0.63 1.72 -3.99 2.74 -0.63 -3.92 2.77
PYR -1.78 1.69 -5.10 1.54 -1.77 -4.97 1.55
BAA -2.00 1.79 -5.51 1.52 -1.98 -5.36 1.53
CHR -2.38 1.73 -5.76 1.00 -2.35 -5.60 1.01
BAP -3.30 1.77 -6.77 0.17 -3.25 -6.55 0.17
BEP -2.51 2.08 -6.59 1.57 -2.48 -6.38 1.59
BBKF -1.62 1.63 -4.82 1.57 -1.61 -4.70 1.58
DBAHA -3.92 2.57 -8.95 1.12 -3.84 -8.56 1.12
PER -3.46 2.33 -8.04 1.11 -3.41 -7.72 1.11
BGHIP -2.37 1.72 -5.74 0.99 -2.35 -5.58 1.00
ICDP -2.38 1.88 -6.07 1.31 -2.35 -5.89 1.32
Channel NAP -5.25 2.83 -10.80 0.30 -5.11 -10.24 0.30
PA -11.03 1.92 -14.80 -7.26 -10.45 -13.76 -7.00
ANT -13.87 2.50 -18.78 -8.96 -12.95 -17.12 -8.57
FLU -10.50 1.82 -14.07 -6.93 -9.97 -13.13 -6.70
PYR -11.64 1.79 -15.14 -8.13 -10.99 -14.05 -7.81
BAA -7.04 1.83 -10.63 -3.45 -6.80 -10.09 -3.40
CHR -6.56 1.81 -10.10 -3.02 -6.35 -9.60 -2.98
BAP -4.96 1.99 -8.86 -1.06 -4.84 -8.47 -1.06
BBKF -5.41 1.76 -8.87 -1.95 -5.26 -8.48 -1.93
DBAHA -8.68 2.10 -12.79 -4.57 -8.31 -12.00 -4.47
BGHIP -4.52 1.77 -7.98 -1.06 -4.42 -7.67 -1.05
ICDP -5.05 1.82 -8.62 -1.47 -4.92 -8.26 -1.46
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP -1.48 3.31 -7.96 5.00 -1.47 -7.65 5.13
ACNLE 2.87 2.01 -1.07 6.80 2.91 -1.06 7.04
ACNE -0.70 1.89 -4.41 3.02 -0.69 -4.31 3.06
FLE -5.00 1.87 -8.67 -1.33 -4.88 -8.31 -1.32
PA -1.50 1.65 -4.73 1.73 -1.49 -4.62 1.75
ANT -8.72 2.22 -13.08 -4.37 -8.36 -12.26 -4.28
FLU -0.12 1.73 -3.50 3.26 -0.12 -3.44 3.32
PYR 0.43 1.76 -3.01 3.87 0.43 -2.97 3.95
BAA -6.85 1.88 -10.53 -3.17 -6.62 -10.00 -3.12
CHR 4.84 1.71 1.50 8.19 4.96 1.51 8.54
BAP 0.48 1.87 -3.19 4.15 0.48 -3.14 4.23
BBKF 1.95 2.22 -2.39 6.30 1.97 -2.36 6.50
DBAHA 0.53 2.54 -4.46 5.51 0.53 -4.36 5.66
BGHIP 1.62 1.77 -1.85 5.09 1.63 -1.83 5.22
ICDP 0.09 1.94 -3.71 3.89 0.09 -3.64 3.97
Irish Sea NAP 4.73 2.76 -0.67 10.13 4.84 -0.67 10.66
ACNLE 1.21 1.96 -2.63 5.06 1.22 -2.59 5.19
ACNE 5.80 1.79 2.29 9.31 5.97 2.32 9.76
FLE -1.60 1.80 -5.13 1.94 -1.59 -5.00 1.96
PA 2.51 1.46 -0.35 5.37 2.54 -0.34 5.51
ANT -4.37 1.76 -7.83 -0.92 -4.28 -7.53 -0.91
DBT 3.05 2.59 -2.03 8.13 3.10 -2.01 8.47
FLU 4.39 1.41 1.63 7.15 4.49 1.64 7.41
PYR 4.38 1.43 1.59 7.18 4.48 1.60 7.45
BAA -0.89 1.49 -3.82 2.03 -0.89 -3.74 2.05
CHR 2.82 1.43 0.02 5.63 2.86 0.02 5.79
BAP 3.29 1.59 0.17 6.41 3.35 0.17 6.62
BEP 1.35 2.33 -3.23 5.92 1.35 -3.18 6.10
BBKF 3.29 2.84 -2.28 8.87 3.35 -2.25 9.27
DBAHA -4.39 2.08 -8.46 -0.32 -4.30 -8.11 -0.32
PER -1.59 2.71 -6.90 3.71 -1.58 -6.67 3.78
BGHIP 4.34 1.44 1.51 7.16 4.43 1.52 7.43
ICDP 1.70 1.54 -1.32 4.71 1.71 -1.31 4.82
Celtic Sea ACNLE -1.20 2.30 -5.70 3.30 -1.19 -5.54 3.35
ACNE 2.27 1.82 -1.29 5.84 2.30 -1.29 6.01
FLE -5.13 1.88 -8.80 -1.45 -5.00 -8.43 -1.44
PA -3.69 1.55 -6.73 -0.66 -3.63 -6.51 -0.66
ANT -13.60 1.76 -17.06 -10.14 -12.72 -15.68 -9.65
FLU -1.63 1.52 -4.60 1.34 -1.62 -4.50 1.34
PYR -2.74 1.52 -5.71 0.23 -2.70 -5.55 0.23
BAA -6.16 1.58 -9.26 -3.06 -5.98 -8.85 -3.02
CHR -3.66 1.48 -6.56 -0.75 -3.59 -6.35 -0.75
BAP 0.03 1.69 -3.28 3.34 0.03 -3.23 3.40
BBKF 0.47 1.80 -3.06 4.01 0.48 -3.01 4.09
DBAHA -3.97 1.97 -7.84 -0.10 -3.90 -7.54 -0.10
BGHIP 2.12 1.66 -1.13 5.37 2.14 -1.13 5.52
ICDP -1.23 1.65 -4.46 1.99 -1.23 -4.37 2.01
Northern Bay of Biscay PA -13.24 1.95 -17.07 -9.42 -12.40 -15.69 -8.99
ANT -8.44 2.90 -14.12 -2.76 -8.10 -13.17 -2.72
FLU -3.55 1.60 -6.68 -0.43 -3.49 -6.47 -0.42
PYR -5.75 1.60 -8.88 -2.62 -5.59 -8.50 -2.58
BAA -3.22 1.73 -6.62 0.18 -3.17 -6.41 0.18
CHR -2.10 1.61 -5.26 1.06 -2.08 -5.12 1.06
BAP -1.46 1.95 -5.28 2.35 -1.45 -5.14 2.38
BBKF -3.33 1.82 -6.91 0.24 -3.28 -6.67 0.24
DBAHA -3.81 2.15 -8.01 0.40 -3.73 -7.70 0.40
BGHIP -2.78 1.71 -6.13 0.57 -2.74 -5.94 0.57
ICDP -3.59 1.80 -7.11 -0.07 -3.53 -6.86 -0.07
Iberian Coast PA -4.02 1.47 -6.90 -1.13 -3.94 -6.67 -1.13
ANT -8.80 1.64 -12.02 -5.57 -8.42 -11.32 -5.42
FLU -8.62 1.46 -11.48 -5.77 -8.26 -10.84 -5.61
PYR -9.01 1.48 -11.90 -6.11 -8.61 -11.22 -5.93
BAA -7.42 1.50 -10.36 -4.48 -7.15 -9.84 -4.38
CHR -8.28 1.49 -11.19 -5.36 -7.94 -10.58 -5.22
BAP -6.00 1.55 -9.05 -2.96 -5.83 -8.65 -2.92
BEP -8.31 1.50 -11.24 -5.37 -7.97 -10.63 -5.23
BBKF -8.34 1.47 -11.23 -5.45 -8.00 -10.62 -5.30
DBAHA -5.82 1.81 -9.37 -2.27 -5.65 -8.94 -2.25
BGHIP -7.36 1.46 -10.21 -4.50 -7.09 -9.71 -4.40
ICDP -5.87 1.48 -8.77 -2.98 -5.70 -8.39 -2.94


Regional status compared to the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional status by PAH: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional status by region: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the EAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the EAC

Note that to see why some points might be coloured blue, it is necessary to look ahead to the next section, where status is compared to the BAC. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to present the assessment of status relative to the EAC with the assessment of status relative to the BAC because the ratio of the BAC to the EAC can vary between PAHs and species.

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) and the regional status trend by PAH


Regional status


Regional status by PAH


Regional status by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log EAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the EAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge -5.63 0.62 -4.61 0.00 0.01
Northern North Sea -3.10 0.57 -2.16 0.04 0.11
Skagerrak and Kattegat -3.71 0.57 -2.77 0.02 0.06
Southern North Sea -3.48 0.57 -2.54 0.03 0.08
Channel -4.13 0.57 -3.20 0.02 0.04
Irish and Scottish West Coast -4.09 0.56 -3.16 0.02 0.04
Irish Sea -3.02 0.56 -2.09 0.05 0.12
Celtic Sea -4.20 0.56 -3.27 0.01 0.04
Northern Bay of Biscay -4.16 0.56 -3.24 0.02 0.04
Iberian Coast -4.23 0.57 -3.28 0.01 0.04


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log EAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the EAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region PAH status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge PA -6.66 0.43 -5.96 0.00 0.00
ANT -6.19 0.36 -5.59 0.00 0.00
FLU -3.81 0.34 -3.24 0.02 0.04
PYR -3.90 0.31 -3.38 0.02 0.03
BAA -4.78 0.32 -4.25 0.01 0.01
CHR
BAP -7.56 0.39 -6.92 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -5.58 0.48 -4.79 0.00 0.01
ICDP
Northern North Sea NAP -3.79 0.23 -3.41 0.02 0.03
PA -4.48 0.18 -4.18 0.01 0.02
ANT -4.47 0.19 -4.15 0.01 0.02
FLU -1.31 0.18 -1.01 0.27 0.36
PYR -1.20 0.18 -0.90 0.30 0.41
BAA -2.16 0.24 -1.77 0.12 0.17
CHR
BAP -4.67 0.25 -4.25 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -2.77 0.23 -2.40 0.06 0.09
ICDP
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP -3.91 0.21 -3.57 0.02 0.03
PA -4.81 0.18 -4.52 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.21 0.20 -4.89 0.01 0.01
FLU -1.98 0.18 -1.68 0.14 0.19
PYR -2.10 0.18 -1.81 0.12 0.16
BAA -2.82 0.18 -2.53 0.06 0.08
CHR
BAP -5.43 0.19 -5.12 0.00 0.01
BGHIP -3.44 0.18 -3.13 0.03 0.04
ICDP
Southern North Sea NAP -3.15 0.20 -2.83 0.04 0.06
PA -4.79 0.18 -4.51 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.42 0.20 -5.09 0.00 0.01
FLU -1.71 0.18 -1.42 0.18 0.24
PYR -1.74 0.18 -1.45 0.18 0.24
BAA -2.64 0.19 -2.33 0.07 0.10
CHR
BAP -5.22 0.19 -4.91 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -3.15 0.18 -2.85 0.04 0.06
ICDP
Channel NAP -6.04 0.17 -5.77 0.00 0.00
PA -5.09 0.16 -4.83 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.45 0.17 -5.17 0.00 0.01
FLU -1.98 0.16 -1.72 0.14 0.18
PYR -2.28 0.16 -2.01 0.10 0.13
BAA -3.11 0.16 -2.85 0.04 0.06
CHR
BAP -5.70 0.16 -5.43 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.37 0.16 -3.10 0.03 0.04
ICDP
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP -4.76 0.29 -4.28 0.01 0.01
PA -4.54 0.13 -4.32 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.48 0.15 -5.24 0.00 0.01
FLU -1.86 0.13 -1.65 0.16 0.19
PYR -1.97 0.13 -1.75 0.14 0.17
BAA -3.30 0.14 -3.07 0.04 0.05
CHR
BAP -6.49 0.14 -6.26 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -4.30 0.14 -4.07 0.01 0.02
ICDP
Irish Sea NAP -4.55 0.20 -4.23 0.01 0.01
PA -4.03 0.14 -3.80 0.02 0.02
ANT -4.55 0.15 -4.31 0.01 0.01
FLU -0.81 0.14 -0.58 0.45 0.56
PYR -0.83 0.14 -0.61 0.43 0.55
BAA -2.12 0.14 -1.89 0.12 0.15
CHR
BAP -4.67 0.14 -4.44 0.01 0.01
BGHIP -2.56 0.14 -2.33 0.08 0.10
ICDP
Celtic Sea NAP -5.52 0.21 -5.17 0.00 0.01
PA -4.89 0.14 -4.66 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.82 0.15 -5.57 0.00 0.00
FLU -2.08 0.14 -1.85 0.13 0.16
PYR -2.16 0.14 -1.94 0.11 0.14
BAA -3.38 0.14 -3.15 0.03 0.04
CHR
BAP -6.15 0.14 -5.91 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.61 0.14 -3.37 0.03 0.03
ICDP
Northern Bay of Biscay NAP -5.99 0.18 -5.69 0.00 0.00
PA -5.26 0.14 -5.03 0.01 0.01
ANT -5.48 0.16 -5.23 0.00 0.01
FLU -1.99 0.14 -1.76 0.14 0.17
PYR -2.08 0.14 -1.86 0.12 0.16
BAA -3.07 0.14 -2.84 0.05 0.06
CHR
BAP -5.94 0.14 -5.71 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.51 0.14 -3.28 0.03 0.04
ICDP
Iberian Coast PA -5.00 0.18 -4.70 0.01 0.01
ANT -6.31 0.20 -5.99 0.00 0.00
FLU -2.36 0.18 -2.07 0.09 0.13
PYR -2.44 0.18 -2.14 0.09 0.12
BAA -3.13 0.18 -2.83 0.04 0.06
CHR
BAP -5.67 0.19 -5.36 0.00 0.00
BGHIP -3.71 0.18 -3.42 0.02 0.03
ICDP


Regional status compared to the Background Assessment Concentration (BAC)

The first 4 tabs show:

  • Regional status: estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals
  • Regional status by PAH: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional status by region: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • blue: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the BAC
  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the Environmental Assessment Criterion (EAC)
  • orange: there is no EAC and the mean concentration is not significantly below the BAC
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the EAC

The final 2 tabs show the estimates of the regional status (averaged over PAHs) and the regional status trend by PAH


Regional status


Regional status by PAH


Regional status by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region

This table shows the estimates of the regional status:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log BAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the BAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge -1.80 0.30 -1.30 0.17 0.27
Northern North Sea 0.88 0.21 1.22 2.41 3.39
Skagerrak and Kattegat 0.26 0.20 0.59 1.30 1.80
Southern North Sea 0.45 0.20 0.77 1.57 2.17
Channel 0.19 0.19 0.50 1.20 1.64
Irish and Scottish West Coast -0.11 0.17 0.17 0.90 1.18
Irish Sea 1.14 0.17 1.42 3.13 4.15
Celtic Sea -0.03 0.17 0.26 0.97 1.29
Northern Bay of Biscay 0.12 0.17 0.41 1.13 1.50
Iberian Coast -0.10 0.20 0.22 0.90 1.25


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log BAC
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the BAC
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region PAH status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge PA -1.81 0.36 -1.23 0.16 0.29
ANT
FLU -1.69 0.32 -1.16 0.18 0.31
PYR -1.58 0.30 -1.08 0.21 0.34
BAA -1.43 0.31 -0.93 0.24 0.40
CHR -2.43 0.30 -1.94 0.09 0.14
BAP -1.67 0.34 -1.11 0.19 0.33
BGHIP -1.86 0.37 -1.25 0.16 0.29
ICDP -1.90 0.36 -1.31 0.15 0.27
Northern North Sea NAP
PA 0.57 0.18 0.88 1.77 2.40
ANT
FLU 0.88 0.18 1.18 2.42 3.26
PYR 1.17 0.18 1.47 3.23 4.35
BAA 1.23 0.23 1.60 3.41 4.95
CHR 0.50 0.23 0.88 1.64 2.41
BAP 1.24 0.24 1.63 3.45 5.09
BGHIP 0.96 0.22 1.32 2.62 3.76
ICDP 0.48 0.23 0.85 1.61 2.35
Skagerrak and Kattegat NAP
PA 0.23 0.18 0.52 1.26 1.69
ANT
FLU 0.23 0.18 0.53 1.26 1.69
PYR 0.33 0.18 0.62 1.39 1.87
BAA 0.61 0.18 0.90 1.84 2.47
CHR -0.16 0.18 0.15 0.85 1.16
BAP 0.56 0.19 0.87 1.75 2.38
BGHIP 0.31 0.18 0.61 1.36 1.84
ICDP 0.00 0.19 0.31 1.00 1.37
Southern North Sea NAP
PA 0.26 0.18 0.55 1.30 1.73
ANT
FLU 0.47 0.18 0.76 1.59 2.14
PYR 0.63 0.18 0.92 1.88 2.52
BAA 0.76 0.19 1.07 2.13 2.91
CHR -0.15 0.18 0.14 0.86 1.15
BAP 0.75 0.19 1.06 2.12 2.88
BGHIP 0.57 0.18 0.87 1.77 2.39
ICDP 0.31 0.19 0.62 1.36 1.86
Channel NAP
PA -0.04 0.16 0.23 0.96 1.26
ANT
FLU 0.22 0.16 0.49 1.25 1.63
PYR 0.13 0.16 0.40 1.14 1.49
BAA 0.36 0.16 0.63 1.43 1.87
CHR -0.04 0.16 0.23 0.96 1.26
BAP 0.35 0.16 0.62 1.42 1.87
BGHIP 0.41 0.16 0.67 1.50 1.96
ICDP 0.08 0.16 0.35 1.08 1.42
Irish and Scottish West Coast NAP
PA 0.47 0.13 0.69 1.60 1.99
ANT
FLU 0.32 0.13 0.54 1.38 1.71
PYR 0.42 0.13 0.64 1.52 1.90
BAA 0.16 0.14 0.38 1.17 1.46
CHR -0.32 0.13 -0.10 0.73 0.91
BAP -0.41 0.14 -0.18 0.66 0.83
BGHIP -0.49 0.14 -0.27 0.61 0.77
ICDP -1.03 0.14 -0.80 0.36 0.45
Irish Sea NAP
PA 1.04 0.14 1.27 2.82 3.55
ANT
FLU 1.39 0.14 1.62 4.01 5.04
PYR 1.56 0.14 1.79 4.77 6.01
BAA 1.34 0.14 1.57 3.82 4.81
CHR 0.58 0.14 0.82 1.79 2.26
BAP 1.37 0.14 1.60 3.92 4.95
BGHIP 1.21 0.14 1.44 3.36 4.24
ICDP 0.64 0.14 0.88 1.90 2.40
Celtic Sea NAP
PA 0.15 0.14 0.38 1.16 1.46
ANT
FLU 0.12 0.14 0.35 1.13 1.42
PYR 0.24 0.14 0.47 1.27 1.60
BAA 0.08 0.14 0.32 1.09 1.37
CHR -0.57 0.14 -0.34 0.57 0.71
BAP -0.08 0.14 0.16 0.93 1.17
BGHIP 0.15 0.14 0.39 1.16 1.47
ICDP -0.33 0.14 -0.09 0.72 0.91
Northern Bay of Biscay NAP
PA -0.20 0.14 0.03 0.82 1.03
ANT
FLU 0.22 0.14 0.44 1.24 1.56
PYR 0.33 0.14 0.56 1.39 1.75
BAA 0.40 0.14 0.63 1.49 1.88
CHR -0.18 0.14 0.05 0.84 1.05
BAP 0.13 0.14 0.37 1.14 1.45
BGHIP 0.28 0.14 0.51 1.32 1.66
ICDP -0.01 0.14 0.22 0.99 1.25
Iberian Coast PA -0.12 0.18 0.17 0.89 1.19
ANT
FLU -0.29 0.18 -0.00 0.75 1.00
PYR -0.15 0.18 0.14 0.86 1.15
BAA 0.18 0.18 0.47 1.20 1.61
CHR -0.45 0.18 -0.16 0.64 0.85
BAP 0.21 0.18 0.51 1.23 1.67
BGHIP -0.09 0.18 0.20 0.92 1.22
ICDP -0.10 0.18 0.19 0.90 1.21


PAH profiles

The profile of concentrations across PAHs can sometimes be useful for examining sources, and for comparing concentrations across regions where assessment criteria are not available. Profiles were examined by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: mean log concentration
  • fixed model: region
  • random model: PAH + region.PAH + station + station.PAH + estimation variance + residual variation

where, for each time series, the mean log concentration is the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the estimation variance is the variance associated with this estimate.

The estimated PAH concentration profiles by region are shown below with pointwise 95% confidence limits. The units are ug/kg dw.