Regional assessment of status against human health thresholds in PAH concentrations in biota

Overview

This document provides additional regional assessments of the status of PAH concentrations in biota based on human health rather than environmental thresholds. The regional assessments are part of the 2024 OSPAR CEMP assessment and concern the PAHs BAP and FLU which are compared against the Quality Standard human health (QShh). Methodological details are only described briefly: further information can be found here.


Summary of individual time series results

This section summarises the individual time series assessments of trend and status for each PAH. This is the only place where trends are presented as the focus of this document is on status relative to the QShh.

The first set of tabs show the trend and status assessments for each PAH in turn. The colours have the following meaning:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not signficantly below the QShh
  • black: there are no assessment criteria available

And the shapes have the following meaning:

  • downward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly decreasing (p < 0.05)
  • circle: there is no significant change in mean concentration (p > 0.05) or there are too few years to test for trends
  • upward triangle: the mean concentration is significantly increasing (p < 0.05)

The second set of tabs give:

  • the number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions
  • the number of time series with green or red status in each MIME and OSPAR region
  • the same information presented as proportions


BAP


FLU


Trend summary (numbers)

Number of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status BAP FLU total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 1 1
downward trend 1 1 2
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 3 3
downward trend 1 1 2
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 0
downward trend 1 1 2
total upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 4 4
downward trend 3 3 6
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 1 8 9
downward trend 1 8 9
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 1 2 3
no trend 5 8 13
downward trend 1 4 5
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 8 14 22
downward trend 4 3 7
Channel upward trend 1 0 1
no trend 18 17 35
downward trend 2 5 7
total upward trend 2 2 4
no trend 32 47 79
downward trend 8 20 28
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 1 2 3
no trend 14 15 29
downward trend 1 1 2
Irish Sea upward trend 4 7 11
no trend 12 16 28
downward trend 1 2 3
Celtic Sea upward trend 2 2 4
no trend 22 19 41
downward trend 0 2 2
total upward trend 7 11 18
no trend 48 50 98
downward trend 2 5 7
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 1 0 1
no trend 24 25 49
downward trend 2 2 4
Iberian Coast upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 13 3 16
downward trend 7 17 24
total upward trend 1 0 1
no trend 37 28 65
downward trend 9 19 28


Trend summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with upwards, downwards or no trend by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status BAP FLU total
1 Barents Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 50 33
downward trend 100 50 67
Greenland-Scotland ridge upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 75 60
downward trend 100 25 40
Norwegian Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 0 0
downward trend 100 100 100
total upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 0 57 40
downward trend 100 43 60
2 Northern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 50 50 50
downward trend 50 50 50
Skagerrak and Kattegat upward trend 14 14 14
no trend 72 57 62
downward trend 14 29 24
Southern North Sea upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 67 82 76
downward trend 33 18 24
Channel upward trend 5 0 2
no trend 86 77 82
downward trend 9 23 16
total upward trend 5 3 4
no trend 76 68 71
downward trend 19 29 25
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast upward trend 6 11 9
no trend 88 83 85
downward trend 6 6 6
Irish Sea upward trend 23 28 26
no trend 71 64 67
downward trend 6 8 7
Celtic Sea upward trend 8 9 9
no trend 92 82 87
downward trend 0 9 4
total upward trend 12 17 14
no trend 84 76 80
downward trend 4 7 6
4 Northern Bay of Biscay upward trend 4 0 2
no trend 89 93 91
downward trend 7 7 7
Iberian Coast upward trend 0 0 0
no trend 65 15 40
downward trend 35 85 60
total upward trend 2 0 1
no trend 79 60 69
downward trend 19 40 30


Status summary (numbers)

Number of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status BAP FLU total
1 Barents Sea green 1 2 3
red 1 0 1
Greenland-Scotland ridge green 4 7 11
red 3 0 3
Norwegian Sea green 1 1 2
red 0 0 0
total green 6 10 16
red 4 0 4
2 Northern North Sea green 7 17 24
red 4 2 6
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 19 20 39
red 1 1 2
Southern North Sea green 20 21 41
red 2 1 3
Channel green 24 25 49
red 1 0 1
total green 70 83 153
red 8 4 12
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 36 37 73
red 0 0 0
Irish Sea green 23 28 51
red 10 4 14
Celtic Sea green 32 32 64
red 0 0 0
total green 91 97 188
red 10 4 14
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 32 32 64
red 0 0 0
Iberian Coast green 20 23 43
red 3 0 3
total green 52 55 107
red 3 0 3


Status summary (proportions)

Proportion of time series with each status by MIME and OSPAR region

OSPAR region MIME region status BAP FLU total
1 Barents Sea green 50 100 75
red 50 0 25
Greenland-Scotland ridge green 57 100 79
red 43 0 21
Norwegian Sea green 100 100 100
red 0 0 0
total green 60 100 80
red 40 0 20
2 Northern North Sea green 64 89 80
red 36 11 20
Skagerrak and Kattegat green 95 95 95
red 5 5 5
Southern North Sea green 91 95 93
red 9 5 7
Channel green 96 100 98
red 4 0 2
total green 90 95 93
red 10 5 7
3 Irish and Scottish West Coast green 100 100 100
red 0 0 0
Irish Sea green 70 88 78
red 30 12 22
Celtic Sea green 100 100 100
red 0 0 0
total green 90 96 93
red 10 4 7
4 Northern Bay of Biscay green 100 100 100
red 0 0 0
Iberian Coast green 87 100 93
red 13 0 7
total green 95 100 97
red 5 0 3


Regional assessment - methods

For a regional status assessment, the status of each time series is summarised by the difference between the estimated mean log concentration in the final monitoring year and the log QShh. The regional status for each PAH is then estimated by fitting the following linear mixed model by restricted maximum likelihood:

  • response: status (mean log concentration - log QShh)
  • fixed model: region.PAH
  • random model: station + station.PAH + status estimation variation + residual variation

Note that the fixed effects model differs from that used in the regional status assessment against environmental thresholds. Here there are only two PAHs and a separate regional trend is fitted for each. In the assessment against environmental thresholds there are ten PAHs. These are regarded as random effects and a common regional status is estimated averaged across PAHs.

There are no restrictions on the time series used in the status meta-analysis based on the classification of the monitoring station; time series from baseline, representative and impacted stations are all included. However, the few time series with a non-parametric assessment of status must be excluded, because there is no summary measure of status to use in the mixed model.

The meta-analysis is restricted to regions and PAH combinations with at least three status stations with good geographic spread.

The results of the status regional assessments are back-transformed for presentation. The estimated regional status is then interpreted as the ratio of the mean regional concentration to the assessment concentration. For example, a value of 1 indicates that the mean regional concentration is equal to the assessment concentration; a value of 0.5 indicates that it is half the assessment concentration, and a value of 2 indicates that it is twice the assessment concentration.


Regional assessment - availability of time series

This section provides more detail on the number and geographic spread of the time series available for the meta-analyses. The tabs show the stations with parametric status assessments for each OSPAR region in turn. The following regions have an insufficient number or time series or spread of stations and are excluded from the regional assessment: Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea. `


OSPAR region 1


OSPAR region 2


OSPAR region 3


OSPAR region 4


Regional status compared to the Quality Standard human health (QShh)

The first 3 tabs show:

  • Regional status by PAH: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by PAH
  • Regional status by region: regional status estimates for each PAH with pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence intervals plotted by region
  • Individual time series: the status estimates from the individual time series on which the regional assessment is based. The estimates for regions with insufficient geographic spread (and excluded from the meta-analysis) are also shown.

The symbols in all the plots have the following interpretation:

  • green: the mean concentration is significantly (p < 0.05) below the QShh
  • red: the mean concentration is not significantly below the QShh

The final tab shows the estimates of the regional status by PAH.


Regional status by PAH


Regional status by region


Individual time series


Estimates by region and PAH

This table shows the estimates of the regional trend by determinand:

  • status: the estimated mean log concentration minus the log QShh
  • se: the corresponding standard error
  • upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit
  • concentration: the estimated mean concentration relative to the QShh
  • conc upper: the corresponding pointwise upper one-sided 95% confidence limit


MIME region PAH status se upper concentration conc upper
Greenland-Scotland ridge BAP -4.41 0.55 -3.51 0.01 0.03
FLU -4.40 0.39 -3.75 0.01 0.02
Northern North Sea BAP -1.42 0.32 -0.90 0.24 0.40
FLU -1.87 0.19 -1.56 0.15 0.21
Skagerrak and Kattegat BAP -2.45 0.21 -2.11 0.09 0.12
FLU -2.47 0.19 -2.16 0.08 0.12
Southern North Sea BAP -2.38 0.21 -2.04 0.09 0.13
FLU -2.22 0.19 -1.90 0.11 0.15
Channel BAP -2.73 0.17 -2.45 0.07 0.09
FLU -2.49 0.17 -2.22 0.08 0.11
Irish and Scottish West Coast BAP -3.50 0.14 -3.26 0.03 0.04
FLU -2.34 0.14 -2.12 0.10 0.12
Irish Sea BAP -1.68 0.15 -1.43 0.19 0.24
FLU -1.27 0.15 -1.03 0.28 0.36
Celtic Sea BAP -3.15 0.15 -2.91 0.04 0.05
FLU -2.56 0.14 -2.33 0.08 0.10
Northern Bay of Biscay BAP -2.94 0.15 -2.70 0.05 0.07
FLU -2.47 0.14 -2.23 0.08 0.11
Iberian Coast BAP -2.65 0.20 -2.32 0.07 0.10
FLU -2.87 0.19 -2.57 0.06 0.08